Bitcoin is currently hovering just under the $110,000 mark, prompting intense debate among traders regarding whether it can maintain support or if a drop below $100,000 is on the horizon. Position trader Bob Loukas recently noted on X that Bitcoin is nearing its Weekly Cycle Low, about five weeks after seeing a peak at $118,000. Loukas emphasized that while a new cycle would be confirmed with a move above that peak, short-term control seems to be in the hands of bearish traders.
He highlighted that Bitcoin’s inability to breach its all-time highs in mid-August suggests that the weekly cycle likely peaked around the 18th week. Despite this bearish sentiment, Loukas remains optimistic about the late-stage four-year cycle, pointing to altcoins that are holding steady even as Bitcoin’s dominance in the market declines—a trend often observed in late-cycle market behavior.
Trader Joe Consorti weighed in on the situation, noting that Bitcoin has experienced $2.75 billion in long liquidations over a period of just four days, featuring two of the largest liquidation events of 2025. This volatility has led to comparisons with past price movements, particularly by CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten. He drew parallels to September 2024 when Bitcoin initially trended upward before plummeting 11% after losing a key trend line. Following that dip, the cryptocurrency consolidated for two weeks before breaking higher in mid-October, without dipping below the early September lows.
Traders are increasingly concerned about Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, with prediction markets now indicating a 61% chance that it will dip below the $100,000 threshold before 2026—a significant rise from 41% just a week prior. Additionally, the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before reaching $130,000 has climbed to 61%, up from 36% as of September 19.
These shifting probabilities arise in conjunction with a major options expiration, featuring over $22.3 billion set to expire on Deribit today. In related news, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas revealed that BlackRock has registered the iShares Bitcoin Premium ETF, which employs a covered call strategy aimed at generating yield for Bitcoin holders. This new product would complement the iShares Bitcoin ETF, which has attracted $60.7 billion in inflows since the beginning of 2024.
As the market continues to unfold, traders remain vigilant, weighing the indicators and sentiments that could influence Bitcoin’s next move in this volatile landscape.
