As 2025 drew to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) found itself in a precarious position, trading over 30% lower than its all-time highs and grappling with the emergence of a technical indicator known as a death cross. This phenomenon, which typically signals significant price corrections, occurred on December 8 when Bitcoin’s 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) intersected. Market analyst Ali Martinez emphasized this development through a post on social media platform X, highlighting the potential implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Trading just above $89,200 at the time, Bitcoin’s recent technical crossover has raised alarms among traders and analysts alike. Historically, such death crosses have precipitated marked downturns in Bitcoin’s value. Martinez pointed to previous instances where these crossovers led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022. Given this historical context, he cautioned that Bitcoin could face a corrective wave of 50% to 60%, setting the potential price range between $50,000 and $38,000.
Adding layers to this outlook, market expert Mags presented two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s forthcoming behavior in light of its recent performance. Following a downturn from its October highs above $126,000, Bitcoin had stabilized near the $85,000 mark for several weeks. During this period, Tether’s USDT dominance experienced a breakout, currently positioned above its former range.
Mags identified a bullish scenario predicated on the decline of USDT dominance. If this trend materializes, it could indicate that the recent breakout is a false signal, potentially allowing Bitcoin to regain momentum and even reach a new all-time high before any substantial selling occurs. However, an alternate bearish scenario was also outlined. In this case, if the broader market weakens, Bitcoin may see a brief rebound, followed by a sustained period of distribution characterized by a slow downward trend, influenced by a higher low formation in USDT dominance.
The next movement of USDT dominance is set to be pivotal in establishing whether the current market represents a temporary pause in price action or marks the beginning of an extended distribution phase en route to a new all-time high. As traders and investors closely monitor these indicators, the cryptocurrency landscape remains charged with uncertainty and potential volatility.
