As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim the coveted $100,000 mark, a seasoned trading expert has issued a cautionary forecast that the cryptocurrency may face further corrections as the year progresses. The analysis suggests a possibility of Bitcoin plummeting to around $60,000.
The insights stem from a TradingView analysis shared on January 16 by TradingShot, utilizing an intricate long-term cycle model that intertwines halving timelines, moving averages, and Fibonacci time extensions. This model indicates that Bitcoin is nearing a critical technical assessment at the daily 200-day moving average (MA), a benchmark that has typically heralded the onset of the second phase of bear cycles. Historically, rejections at this level have led to sustained downward pressure rather than brief pullbacks, hinting at a transition from a distribution phase to a more significant retracement.
Supporting this perspective, the rainbow cycle chart correlates price movements with halving events and Fibonacci extensions. The next pivotal time target is set for the 4.618 Fibonacci extension, projected for the last week of September 2026. This temporal milestone has historically coincided with cycle lows, leading the model to estimate that Bitcoin could be trading around $60,000 by then. While this figure represents a significant drop from previous cycle highs, it remains consistent with Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory.
Interestingly, the anticipated downturn would occur well ahead of the next halving event, which is expected in April 2028. This timing suggests that the market might be in a prolonged phase before the next profit-taking opportunity arises.
In addition, Bitcoin’s inability to surpass the upper orange band in the latest bull cycle—specifically the $150,000 mark—reinforces the narrative of diminishing returns, signifying that each cycle is yielding smaller percentage gains than in the past.
This cautious outlook emerges as Bitcoin has recently made attempts to breach the $100,000 threshold, only to encounter a modest retreat. The asset experienced a brief resurgence of bullish sentiment earlier this week, largely fueled by institutional investments following its breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase around the $90,000 level, which saw prices spike nearly to $98,000.
This surge heightened expectations that traders anticipating sideways or downward price movements would be compelled to adjust their positions, potentially sending Bitcoin back above the $100,000 mark. Yet, this momentum proved fleeting, as Bitcoin reversed direction and exhibited signs of weakness. The likelihood of a pullback towards the low-$90,000 range has since increased.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $95,123, reflecting a marginal decline of around 0.4% over the past 24 hours. In contrast, the asset has seen a weekly rise exceeding 5%. Analysis based on moving averages reveals that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits at $90,095, remaining below the current price and indicating short-term bullish momentum, which suggests the potential for upward pressure in the near term.
Conversely, the 200-day SMA, positioned at $105,657, sits above the current price, hinting at underlying bearish tendencies or an ongoing correction from prior highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stands at 63.30, indicating neutrality and avoiding the overbought territory. This suggests room for further gains without immediate risk of a reversal, although it necessitates careful monitoring for any shifts in buying strength.
