Bitcoin (BTCUSD) could face further corrections, potentially dropping toward the $70,000 mark, particularly if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) pursues an anticipated interest-rate hike on December 19. Analysts with a macroeconomic focus suggest that this tightening could drain global liquidity, thereby applying pressure on Bitcoin.
Historically, BoJ rate hikes have correlated with significant price corrections in Bitcoin. Data shared by analyst AndrewBTC shows that every rate increase from the BoJ since 2024 was accompanied by Bitcoin price declines exceeding 20%. Notable dips include a 23% drop in March 2024, a 26% decline in July 2024, and a considerable 31% plunge in January 2025. AndrewBTC cautions that the same downside risks could materialize if the BoJ implements a rate increase this Friday.
A recent poll by Reuters indicates that a majority of economists anticipate another interest rate hike during the upcoming policy meeting. This expectation is rooted in Japan’s influence over global liquidity. Historically, rate hikes by the BoJ have led to a stronger Japanese yen, making borrowing and investment in riskier assets more expensive. Consequently, traders often unwind “yen carry trades,” which further tightens global liquidity. As liquidity diminishes, Bitcoin is typically pressured, with investors decreasing leverage and exposure during risk-off periods.
Analyst EX has stated that Bitcoin may “dump below $70,000” under these macroeconomic conditions. Adding to these concerns, technical analysis of Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals warning signs of a potential bear flag formation. This pattern has emerged following a sharp decline from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, giving way to a narrow, upward-sloping consolidation channel. Such formations often indicate temporary pauses before a continuation of the prevailing trend. A confirmed breakdown below the bear flag’s lower trendline could instigate another downward movement, with projections suggesting a target within the $70,000–$72,500 range.
Other analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have echoed the sentiment, establishing similar downside targets in recent discussions. Investors are reminded that all trading and investment activities carry inherent risks, and it is crucial to conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions. While efforts are made to provide timely and accurate information, there is no guarantee of the completeness or reliability of this data, and the potential for loss or damage remains a reality for investors.
