In June, Bitcoin has faced significant price declines, dropping by double digits as investors continue to pull capital from ETFs amidst rising geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is approximately 50% lower than its peak of $126,080 reached in October 2025, as reported by CoinGecko. Notably, this downturn marks the shallowest bear market in the cryptocurrency’s history.
Historical data reveals a trend of diminishing bear market drawdowns for Bitcoin. In 2012, the drawdown exceeded 90%, and over the successive cycles, it declined to 82% and 74% in 2015 and 2022, respectively. This cycle, marked by a 50% drop, indicates a gradual easing of bear market severity over time.
Analysts attribute this phenomenon to a growing institutional presence in the cryptocurrency space. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, noted that Bitcoin has evolved into a more institutionalized macro asset, supported by ETFs, increased liquidity, and a broader base of long-term investors. Consequently, Ko anticipates that drawdowns will remain shallower in the current cycle compared to past experiences.
Martin Lee, from DWF Labs, also acknowledged the shift in Bitcoin’s holder composition, highlighting the notable presence of institutions and corporations that have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This change is expected to contribute to reduced volatility in the market.
However, experts caution against concluding that the bear market has bottomed out. Despite the 50% drawdown being a significant reset, Ko believes it is premature to declare the bear market over. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring ETF outflows, broader macroeconomic pressures, and liquidity rotations to gauge the bear market’s duration more accurately.
Alex Tsepaev, Chief Strategy Officer at B2PRIME Group, corroborated this perspective, stating that current indicators remain bearish. Tsepaev pointed out that since mid-May, there has been only one day of inflows, which occurred on June 4, indicating weakened passive demand.
Regarding potential bottom prices for Bitcoin, both Ko and Tsepaev identified $60,000 as a critical psychological support level. In bearish scenarios, they foresee possible retests of the $55,000 and $45,000 levels. Wintermute also expressed a bearish outlook, noting that Bitcoin has not established significant technical support in the $50,000 to $59,000 range.
Market sentiment appears to be trending bearish, as reflected on the prediction market Myriad, owned by Dastan, where participants assign a 72% probability to Bitcoin’s potential decline to $55,000. This sentiment has shifted from only 39% on June 1, highlighting increasing fears among investors.
Ko mentioned that a calming geopolitical landscape could serve as a crucial catalyst for stabilizing Bitcoin’s price, potentially alleviating the current pressures in the market. He also highlighted the anticipated growth in ETF demand as a second potential driver for recovery.
In the altcoin sector, Lee noted that some tokens, such as Hyperliquid’s HYPE, are showing resilience by diverging from wider market trends. This could indicate a shift towards valuing cryptocurrencies based on their individual merits rather than solely relying on Bitcoin’s performance. Lee stressed that, similar to equity markets, not every digital asset will succeed in recovering, underscoring the importance of merit-based evaluations.
