Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $66,600, as an extended holiday weekend diminishes the presence of potential buyers, inadvertently giving bears more influence over price movements. With the upcoming Good Friday resulting in a pause for CME futures and ETF flows, the market is entering a liquidity void at a time when its primary support level appears to be weakening.
The $65,000 support level for Bitcoin is increasingly looking fragile. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the 30-day apparent demand for Bitcoin stands at around -63,000 BTC, despite a rise in ETF and corporate purchases, which have reached multi-month highs. Singapore-based market maker Enflux pointed out that the current price floor is “partly underwritten by rate-cut expectations,” suggesting that traders are looking toward future monetary policy shifts for support.
Over the past month, ETF transactions have surged to approximately 50,000 BTC, marking the highest volume since October 2025, while another strategy has added about 44,000 BTC in the same timeframe. However, overall market demand remains negative, as selling pressure from other participants outweighs these inflows.
This selling pressure is predominantly evident among large holders, with CryptoQuant noting a shift in behavior from wallets holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, which have transitioned to net distribution. Their one-year balance change has decreased significantly from a positive 200,000 BTC at the peak of the 2024 cycle to about negative 188,000 BTC. Mid-sized holders have also reduced their accumulation rates noticeably, while the Coinbase Premium remains negative, indicating weak demand in the U.S. spot market.
This situation has led to a market dynamic where the increased institutional activity does not correspond to stronger price support. As more capital flows into ETF products and regulated futures markets, Bitcoin’s valuation is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than broad-based spot accumulation.
Currently, this macro-sensitive positioning is being tested in light of recent inflation data. The ISM prices-paid index shot up to 78.3 in March, its highest level since June 2022, contradicting expectations for imminent rate cuts. Enflux observed that the impact of this macroeconomic repricing is evident, with $296 million in net outflows from ETFs during the week of March 24, alongside subdued inflows in early April.
As the long weekend approaches, a significant stabilizing force is set to temporarily vanish. With the CME closed and ETF creation and redemption on hold, the institutional demand that has increasingly supported Bitcoin price is likely to be absent. This leaves spot markets under sustained selling pressure.
CryptoQuant highlighted that any potential relief rally could encounter resistance within the range of approximately $71,500 to $81,200, levels that previously capped rebounds during this ongoing bear market. The broader challenge lies ahead with the U.S. inflation data release set for April 9. Should the March core PCE exceed February’s figure of 3.1%, the expectations for rate cuts may diminish further, solidifying the bearish outlook for Bitcoin.
