Bitcoin (BTC-USD) faced significant pressure on Monday, dipping below the $92,000 mark and marking a decline of over 26% from its record highs in October. This latest downturn raises critical questions among investors about whether this is merely a short-term correction or the onset of another extended bear market akin to previous four-year cycles.
The cryptocurrency has experienced a sharp decline following the liquidation of $19 billion in leveraged positions last month, compounded by long-term investors capitalizing on profits. The current sell-off aligns with a historical trend where Bitcoin typically reaches its peak between 400 to 600 days post-halving, which for Bitcoin occurred in April 2024.
In a recent analysis, Bernstein noted that this pattern has contributed to the current market sell-off for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the analysts argue that the evidence suggests a potential for short-term consolidation rather than the significant 60-70% losses seen in previous cycles. Bitcoin had previously surpassed $126,000 per token on October 6, heightening concerns about the current downturn.
Analysts pointed to an uptick in ETF adoption by institutional investors, indicating a shift toward higher quality and more consistent ownership of Bitcoin. Political backing from the Trump administration and the ongoing Clarity Act legislation in Congress have emerged as positive forces supporting Bitcoin’s market position.
Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy, emphasized that the current market environment does not resemble a peak cycle. Instead, he characterized it as a structural multi-year trend toward greater institutional involvement in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, complete with necessary corrections along the way. Saylor indicated an interest in watching if Bitcoin could stabilize around the ~$80,000 mark, similar to levels seen right after the Trump election, suggesting that this period of market weakness might present attractive entry points for new investors.
Compounding these dynamics, Strategy has continued its purchasing strategy, announcing on Monday the acquisition of an additional 8,178 Bitcoin at an average price of $102,171 each, amounting to about $835 million. This ongoing investment provides a degree of market support amidst the current volatility.
Conversely, 10X Research has identified that new buying interest started to plateau around October 10, attributing this stagnation to a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve in recent days, which has left the market in a precarious state. The research firm cautions that the existing four-year cycle merits serious attention, as various independent indicators align to suggest a moment of heightened caution for investors.
