The recent analysis from on-chain expert Willy Woo indicates that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a short-term rebound, propelled by evolving macroeconomic policies in the United States that could promote greater crypto adoption. Woo’s insights suggest that investor inflows into Bitcoin reached a low point on December 24, 2025, but have since shown signs of strengthening. Despite a cautious outlook for 2026 resulting from declining liquidity, the immediate future appears promising for Bitcoin, hinting at a cautiously bullish phase.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90,580, notably below the estimated production cost for miners, which sits at approximately $101,000 per BTC. Analyst Wimar.X points out that trading below miner production costs does not typically trigger panic selling among miners. Instead, they tend to reduce production and wait for favorable market conditions, often resulting in a period of low trading activity that can serve as a temporary price floor. “BTC is cheap relative to what it takes to produce it. Most people panic sell here, then BTC pushes back above the miner’s cost, and everyone suddenly turns bullish again. Same story every cycle,” Wimar.X stated.
Willy Woo adds that genuine market movements are driven more by actual spot inflows rather than mere narratives or correlations with equity markets. He emphasizes the importance of measuring real investor allocations into Bitcoin, suggesting that the market can rally without Bitcoin if these allocations are absent.
A potential macro catalyst for Bitcoin’s movement could be President Donald Trump’s recent proposal to implement a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, starting January 20, 2026. This initiative is designed to reduce financial pressure on millions of Americans, particularly those with credit scores lower than 780, who may find themselves with limited access to traditional credit as a result.
This policy shift could lead to increased consumer interest in alternative financial systems, such as Bitcoin and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Analysts predict that banks, including major players like Visa and Mastercard, might experience short-term volatility as they adjust to regulations affecting higher-risk credit users. Crypto commentator Crypto Rover noted that Visa and Mastercard could be adversely affected if Trump’s proposal gains traction, leading to significant market reactions.
Industry observers suggest that the policy may prompt banks to offload low credit-rated customers, driving them to explore digital solutions such as DeFi lending platforms like Aave or Compound. This could create a “seamless adoption cycle,” positively impacting the demand for stablecoins, Bitcoin, and Ethereum-based DeFi structures.
While Woo remains optimistic about the possibility of a short-term rebound, he maintains a cautious perspective regarding the broader landscape for 2026. He highlights that liquidity flows have been decreasing compared to price momentum since January 2025, which might limit the sustainability of any temporary price surges.
As the anticipated policy date approaches and ongoing liquidity trends continue to unfold, the upcoming weeks could be critical for Bitcoin. This period represents a unique inflection point where short-term bullish forces may clash with structural uncertainties in the market.
