In a stark prediction that has stirred considerable discussion within the investment community, Mike McGlone, a senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has declared Bitcoin’s potential plunge to $10,000, labeling the cryptocurrency market as “dead” for institutional investment.
McGlone emphasizes the challenges facing Bitcoin and the broader crypto asset class, highlighting a plethora of factors that contribute to their declining viability as investments for institutional risk managers. He points to an unlimited supply of tokens and a troubling performance trajectory over the last five years compared to the S&P 500, which has rendered the asset class largely unappealing for serious investors.
According to McGlone, the price level of $10,000 has emerged as a significant pivot point for Bitcoin, much like how crude oil has consistently hovered around $57 per barrel for nearly a decade. He articulates that Bitcoin is likely to revert to this benchmark amid a broader market correction. Notably, his forecasts have previously demonstrated a mix of accuracy—having once predicted a drop to $1,100 back in 2018 when Bitcoin was trading around $10,000. Although Bitcoin eventually reached a low of $3,000, McGlone still considers himself “30% wrong and 70% right.”
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, and McGlone believes the upcoming correction in the stock market, anticipated to be the first 20% downturn in several years, will create the impetus for this final leg down. He stipulates that Bitcoin must stay above $74,000 in order to contradict his bearish stance, a price threshold he has adjusted from an earlier prediction of $90,000.
Various metrics back McGlone’s claim that the crypto space is faltering as an institutional asset. Since 2017, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has failed to keep pace with the S&P 500, showing a decline of nearly 20% in both 2025 and year-to-date in 2026. McGlone argues that the oversaturation of cryptocurrencies—from the single token Bitcoin in 2009 to approximately 37 million today—has contributed to an environment rife with underperformance and excessive volatility.
The strategist does mention the emergence of stablecoins, which have grown to a market cap of $300 billion anchored by real value, contrasting sharply with other tokens that he believes represent an “unlimited supply” lacking intrinsic worth. For instance, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, which once boasted market valuations of around $80 billion combined at their peak in 2024, are now estimated at approximately $20 billion.
McGlone notes that correlations within the market have intensified, with the Market Vectors Digital Assets 100 Small Cap Index showing a 0.84 correlation with Bitcoin over the past four years, marking a reversal from earlier trends. As the U.S. stock market cap relative to GDP hit historic highs of 2.3 times, McGlone argues that “crypto led the way up in risk assets—but now they’re leading the way lower.”
In his outlook, McGlone anticipates a period of deflation following inflation, drawing parallels to China’s financial landscape where the 10-year bond yield stands at 1.82% amid a staggering debt-to-GDP ratio of 300%. While he remains optimistic about U.S. Treasuries, forecasting their ability to yield positive returns this year, he asserts that Bitcoin’s era of dominance is coming to a close, with gold potentially making a resurgence in 2025.
As this outlook unfolds, the broader implications for investors may reinforce the ongoing conversation about balancing portfolios and diversifying asset classes in light of current market realities.
