Bitcoin trading is expected to remain largely rangebound as 2025 winds down, hindered by macroeconomic pressures and ongoing rebalancing flows, sources close to the matter have indicated. Analysts are particularly focused on the $83,000 to $95,000 range, forecasting heightened volatility during the remainder of the year.
A significant factor that could potentially trigger a rally in 2026 is the Federal Reserve’s guidance following a probable interest rate cut in December, with expectations of an additional two to three cuts into the middle of the year. Recent market dynamics have been heavily influenced by a sudden dip in Bitcoin prices on December 1, which has contributed to a cautious and fearful sentiment among traders. This decline represents a 7% drop for the month and a notable 31% correction from the October 6 all-time high of $126,080, as reported by CoinGecko.
Market experts describe the current condition of the crypto landscape as fragile, with negative news overshadowing positive developments. Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, emphasized that while Bitcoin is experiencing corrections typical of a bull market, it has not yet entered bear territory. The market’s fears have been exacerbated by a lack of positive macroeconomic data and speculation surrounding the financial stability of key players like MicroStrategy and Tether.
Strategists like Tim Sun from HashKey Group have echoed Lim’s cautious outlook, emphasizing that Bitcoin’s path to recovery will depend on noticeable improvements in the macroeconomic environment. Sun noted that a bullish one-way trend this year appears unlikely, with a more realistic expectation that Bitcoin will focus on consolidating rather than rallying. He highlighted that liquidity conditions and overall market sentiment remain weak, even with the potential for a December rate cut becoming a lesser concern compared to the Fed’s broader 2026 outlook.
In terms of longer-term expectations, the Fed’s recent halt to its quantitative tightening program signifies a shift, although its benefits may take time to resonate in the market. Lim pointed to historical parallels, suggesting it often takes several months for risk assets to respond positively post-QT. He speculates that Bitcoin may eventually stabilize within a range of $110,000 to $135,000 if the right conditions arise, contingent on factors like continued institutional adoption and sustained Fed rate cuts through mid-2026.
Analysts are keen to distinguish the current market pullback from a genuine bear market. Sun explained that a true bear market usually involves significant capital withdrawal and a breakdown in narratives, neither of which is currently evident. The lack of widespread enthusiasm or speculative behavior distinguishes this phase, signaling that as long as expectations for a more accommodating Fed policy in 2026 remain intact, the ongoing correction is more indicative of a bottom-forming consolidation than the start of a protracted downturn. However, Lim cautioned that a drop below $75,000 could change the landscape, opening the door to a deeper market decline.
