Bitcoin’s trajectory towards reaching a market bottom may be imminent, potentially as early as next month, based on insights provided by Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Szuster’s analysis suggests that while Bitcoin peaked at approximately $126,000 in October 2025 when measured in U.S. dollars, the patterns established in prior cycles indicate a potential downturn could extend until late 2026.
However, a different narrative unfolds when Bitcoin’s value is assessed in gold terms. The cryptocurrency hit its high against gold in January 2025, and utilizing a historical trend of 12 to 13 months, Bitcoin could be positioned to reach a possible bottom around February 2026, with indicators pointing to a potential recovery by March.
This divergence in timelines is attributed to broader macroeconomic dynamics. Since the commencement of Donald Trump’s latest mandate, markets have contended with aggressive trade tariffs, institutional strife within the U.S., and escalating tensions particularly with China and Iran, the latter of which has led to ongoing military conflicts. The cumulative effect of these factors has driven global uncertainty to unprecedented levels as tracked by the World Uncertainty Index, consequently benefiting gold, which has surged over 80% in value, reaching $5,280.
As capital shifts towards bullion, Bitcoin has witnessed a decline against gold at a faster rate than it has against the dollar, as highlighted by Szuster. The outflow of capital has also been amplified by the movement of approximately $7.8 billion from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since November, marking around 12% of the total $61.6 billion in assets.
Despite the prevailing fear-induced sell-off, Szuster’s report indicates that large-scale investors, or “whales,” continue to perceive the current downturn as an accumulation opportunity. Notably, major investment firms like Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments from Abu Dhabi have increased their exposure to spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling confidence amid market volatility.
In light of these developments, Szuster advises investors to strategically build their positions utilizing a dollar-cost averaging approach to capitalize on current market fears and mitigate timing concerns. He posits that historically, purchasing during times of fear has proven more advantageous than entering the market during euphoric peaks. While it remains uncertain whether the market has already reached its lowest point, Szuster emphasizes that statistically, conditions suggest it is a favorable period for establishing strong average prices.
