Bitcoin continues to show its cyclical nature, yet uncertainty looms over its current performance amid broader economic concerns. Analysts are grappling with whether Bitcoin is experiencing a typical part of its four-year cycle, particularly after last year’s halving event. Historically, significant price peaks have occurred approximately 400 to 600 days following such events, leading to speculation about the current market trajectory.
Since the start of the year, some bullish analysts have suggested that this cycle may be extended beyond the traditional timeline into 2026. Bernstein recently released a note suggesting that the current situation represents a short-term correction rather than a more severe downturn. This outlook is supported by the growth of institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs, which are becoming what are termed “sticky holders.” Such institutions are employing strategies that involve purchasing Bitcoin at various price levels to accumulate more over time.
Moreover, the potential for regulatory support from the Trump administration has also been discussed as a positive sign for Bitcoin’s prospects. Legislative efforts, such as the proposed Clarity Act, could serve as catalysts for Bitcoin’s further adoption and price recovery. Despite this optimism, there remains speculation regarding whether Bitcoin has reached a bottom, with Bernstein implying there could be lower entry points around the $80,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading more than 20% below its all-time highs. Market observers are closely monitoring the U.S. Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts in December, which could further invigorate interest in Bitcoin.
In a noteworthy development, one of the largest players in the Bitcoin market, presenting as “strategy,” reported significant acquisitions of Bitcoin this week. Contrary to prior reports suggesting that they had sold some of their holdings, the entity confirmed buying approximately $835.6 million worth of Bitcoin in the last week. This acquisition represents the largest purchase since July, increasing their total holdings to around $61.7 billion.
To finance this latest buy, “strategy” is not relying on selling additional shares but is instead pursuing preferred securities offerings, including a recent one in Europe. The ongoing bullish stance of figures like Michael Saylor, a prominent advocate for Bitcoin, has bolstered market confidence despite ongoing questioning about the presence of new marginal buyers.
Strategists highlight that while existing long-term holders, notably, have been selling since the summer, the main question remains: are there sufficient marginal buyers entering the market to sustain the momentum? Additionally, the potential inclusion of “strategy” in the S&P 500 could emerge as a significant factor influencing Bitcoin’s market position, with further developments anticipated next month.
