According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may have entered a bear market approximately two months ago, evidenced by multiple technical and on-chain indicators that turned bearish in early November without signs of recovery. The assertion, discussed during an appearance on the Milk Road show, has raised concerns among investors about the future trajectory of Bitcoin.
Moreno points to the significant moment when Bitcoin dropped below its one-year moving average, a longstanding technical indicator used to identify broader market trends. This particular price action, he claims, confirms a potential shift from bullish to bearish conditions. Currently trading around $88,500, Bitcoin started 2025 near $93,000 and reached a high of approximately $126,080 in October before reversing course.
Moreno anticipates that if this indeed marks a bear market, Bitcoin could find a bottom in the range of $56,000 to $60,000 over the upcoming year. This estimate is based on Bitcoin’s realized price—the average price at which holders acquired their assets—which historically tends to attract prices back toward that level in extended downturns.
While a drop to the $56,000 to $60,000 range would represent a significant decline of roughly 55% from its peak, Moreno considers this outcome comparatively mild by historical standards. Previous bear markets have witnessed more drastic falls, between 70% and 80%, typically accompanied by severe systemic failures across the crypto sector, as seen in 2022 with the collapses of prominent entities such as Terra and FTX.
However, this cycle appears to be structurally different. Moreno highlights the lack of analogous systemic crises, coupled with the increasing presence of institutional participants, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and long-term investors. These entities tend to hold onto their positions during downturns and are less likely to contribute to sell-offs, thereby providing some stability in a market that has become more diversified and secure.
Moreno expressed optimism that the evolving structure of the market, characterized by these institutional stakeholders, may help mitigate the impact of bearish trends. He noted that unlike prior periods where demand contracted significantly, there seems to be more sustained interest from institutional investors and ETFs, suggesting a potential buffer against overwhelming downward pressure even during challenging market conditions.
