Veteran trader Peter Brandt has expressed caution regarding Bitcoin’s return to its all-time high of $126,100, which was reached in October of the previous year. Brandt stated in an interview that it could be more than a year before Bitcoin experiences a new price peak, suggesting that it may not be until the second quarter of 2027 that Bitcoin reaches such heights again. He emphasized that his predictions are speculative, stating, “this is all guesswork.”
The pessimism surrounding Bitcoin’s future performance appears to be echoed across the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, where there is only a 15% probability that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 by 2026. Analysts are divided, with some subscribing to the four-year cycle theory, which posits that Bitcoin is poised for a weaker performance this year. In contrast, others argue that increasing institutional demand might disrupt this cycle, suggesting the possibility of a more favorable year ahead.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $66,329, representing a 3.46% decline over the past week and about 47% lower than its record high. Earlier in the year, Bitcoin reached a yearly low of $60,000 on February 6. Brandt believes that this may not be the lowest level for Bitcoin in 2026. He forecasts that Bitcoin could retest or even dip “slightly lower” than its September or October price levels, which could signify the end of the current bear cycle and the beginning of a new bullish phase.
Despite his cautious outlook for Bitcoin this year, Brandt remains steadfast in his overall perspective on the cryptocurrency, defining it primarily as a store of wealth. He noted that the development of additional utility on the Bitcoin network could influence its price, while expressing a neutral or bearish stance towards other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has commented on the current state of the market, indicating that, from a liquidity perspective, Bitcoin is about one-third of the way through the bear market. Similarly, Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge investment firm, reiterated that Bitcoin is in the bear portion of its four-year market cycle. He highlighted the influence of traditional investors who adhere to this cycle, suggesting that their belief may contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In recent developments, Bitcoin funds saw a shift in trend as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced $296.18 million in net outflows during the past week, ending a four-week streak of inflows. Investor sentiment appears cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, as reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which has remained in the “extreme fear” zone since March 20, recently logging a score of 8.
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, not all voices in the market share this outlook. Earlier in January, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, projected that Bitcoin could still reach a new all-time high this year, while cautioning investors to prepare for a “painful decline” across both the cryptocurrency and stock markets.
