Bitcoin (BTC) concluded September with a price of approximately $113,400, having dipped from a peak of $114,842 on the final trading day, September 30. This late-month pullback coincided with gold reaching new all-time highs, igniting discussions on whether Bitcoin’s future movements might mirror those of the precious metal as the fourth quarter approaches.
On September 30, spot gold prices surged to around $3,871 per ounce, driven by mounting concerns regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown and an anticipatory shift in Federal Reserve policies toward easing. Analysts noted that a softer yield environment could bolster riskier assets, including Bitcoin, in the forthcoming weeks.
Market dynamics indicate that $115,000 now serves as a significant resistance point for Bitcoin, while a “gap” at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange near $110,000 continues to pose a potential downside risk for bears. Traders characterized the recent Bitcoin activity as consolidation, drawing parallels between its trends and gold’s breakout trajectory.
Market sentiment among analysts is cautiously optimistic. An October 30 tweet highlighted the anticipated price discovery mode for Bitcoin as akin to gold’s shakeout into an all-time high.
On September 29, Bitcoin attracted notable investment, with U.S. spot Bitcoin funds receiving a sizable net inflow of $518 million, making it the most robust daily intake of the week. This influx partially mitigated earlier monetary outflows, although comprehensive data for September 30 had not been finalized by the time of reporting.
In terms of perpetual futures funding across exchanges, the metrics remained modestly positive, indicating a subtle long bias without excessive speculative positions that typically characterize market peaks.
As Bitcoin enters Q4, participants are closely monitoring whether gold’s breakout is a precursor to further gains in Bitcoin or whether the existing $110,000 gap could lead to lower prices before any substantial recovery above $115,000 takes place.
Recent bullish signals include Tether’s significant acquisition of $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, which highlights strong institutional demand and lends credence to optimistic forecasts for the final quarter. Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that, following a brief pullback, Bitcoin appears poised for upward movement, having already surpassed crucial resistance levels.
As of the latest observations, Bitcoin traded around $112,800, showing a slight decline of about 1.2% for the day. The daily chart reflects consolidation beneath the $115,000 to $118,000 range, a level that has repeatedly posed challenges in recent months. Despite this, the support level around $109,000 has remained intact, suggesting that current price movements are corrective within a broader uptrend.
Analyst Ted, monitoring the Bitcoin-gold correlation, pointed out that Bitcoin historically lags gold’s price changes by about eight weeks. Therefore, with gold recently setting new records, expectations are that Bitcoin may soon follow suit, possibly targeting resistance levels near $125,000 as it mimics past year-end surges.
However, traders remain vigilant on possible corrections toward the $109,000 to $110,000 range before momentum potentially accelerates again. A decisive close above $118,000 would serve as confirmation for a continued bullish trend.
With significant institutional investment from Tether and gold’s impressive performance providing a favorable backdrop, overall sentiment appears to be shifting positively as Q4, traditionally a strong period for Bitcoin, unfolds. Many market participants are optimistic about the potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs before the end of the year.
