As March nears its end, Bitcoin appears poised to avert a potentially historic losing streak. The cryptocurrency has gained approximately 2% this month, maintaining its position above the $68,000 mark. A last-minute decline, however, could result in Bitcoin closing out six consecutive months in the negative, a streak unmatched since the period between August 2018 and January 2019.
From a technical perspective, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) is emerging as a crucial benchmark to monitor. This metric, which reflects Bitcoin’s long-term price trend by averaging its closing prices over the prior 200 weeks, has served as robust support during bear markets. In the current scenario, the 200WMA is situated around $59,000. After dipping as low as $60,000 in early February, Bitcoin has managed to consolidate above this level for nearly two months, indicating sustained strength at this pivotal support zone. It’s noteworthy that the recent 2022 bear market represents the sole cycle during which Bitcoin lingered below the 200WMA for an extended period, specifically from June through December.
In addition to its performance against the US dollar, Bitcoin has also begun to exhibit relative strength against gold. The cryptocurrency is on track to mark its first positive monthly candle versus gold in eight months; currently, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio stands at around 16 ounces. Meanwhile, gold is trading close to $4,200 after experiencing a recent drop towards the $4,000 threshold, representing a 5% decrease on the day. This marks a substantial 25% decline from gold’s all-time high in January, which has led to a total loss in market capitalization of approximately $7.5 trillion.
Historically, Bitcoin’s value relative to gold has seen diminished drawdowns in each cycle following a peak. In the current cycle, Bitcoin has experienced a 71% decline against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. Typically, these peak-to-trough cycles last around 400 days, suggesting that the existing downturn in this ratio may be overstated. Should Bitcoin successfully maintain support above the 200WMA and restore its strength relative to gold, it would bolster the argument that the overall upward trend remains firmly in place.
