Bitcoin’s price has faced significant declines over the weekend, dropping from the low-$92,000 range observed on Thursday to lows nearing $87,000. This downturn is attributed to a combination of thin liquidity and pervasive selling pressure, which has dampened traders’ risk appetite. The decline beneath the $90,000 level coincided with typically low-volume Sunday trading, exacerbating volatility as traders braced for a week packed with crucial U.S. economic data and events from central banks.
In October, Bitcoin hit an all-time high, but since then, it has exhibited a choppy consolidation trend. As of the latest figures, Bitcoin is down approximately 7% for the month, reflecting broader struggles in the cryptocurrency markets. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano, have continued their decline, posting double-digit monthly losses. This trend has further solidified Bitcoin’s dominance, which now stands at around 57% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.
Trading volumes across the crypto market have remained muted, indicating a lack of conviction among traders rather than outright capitulation. On the macroeconomic front, analysts are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including employment data, inflation figures, and PMI readings, alongside commentary from the Federal Reserve that may influence rate expectations. Additionally, global focus is shifting toward Japan, where speculation suggests the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates later this week, a move that could exert downward pressure on yen-funded carry trades that have historically supported risk assets like Bitcoin.
Technical analysts are keeping a close eye on the mid-$80,000 range. A sustained breach below this level might trigger a more significant correction, while maintaining support could reinforce the notion that Bitcoin’s price remains trapped within a range rather than entering a new bear market.
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, some bearish predictions have been notably severe. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone recently warned that Bitcoin could plummet as much as 90% from its peak, potentially revisiting the $10,000 mark in a future deflationary scenario. This forecast underscores previous bearish sentiments amid a notable unwinding of leveraged long positions, with approximately $230 million in Bitcoin longs liquidated over the last 24 hours.
However, on-chain data presents a more nuanced perspective on Bitcoin’s current situation. According to Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s Price Forecast Tools, which are based on network fundamentals rather than market sentiment, Bitcoin is trading below its fair value rather than on the verge of a structural collapse. Indicators like CVDD, Balanced Price, and the Bitcoin Cycle Master suggest a fair market value near $106,000, with long-term risks skewing closer to the $80,000 range. Historically, these metrics have correlated closely with market cycle peaks and troughs, providing a framework that helps filter out short-term noise.
While macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue influencing market volatility, on-chain signals imply that the current downturn resembles late-cycle consolidation rather than the onset of a long-term decline. As of the latest update, Bitcoin’s price stands at $89,317.
