Bitcoin’s price is experiencing renewed pressure, primarily driven by significant outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and rising bond yields. Investors withdrew a noteworthy $171.2 million from seven ETFs on Thursday, marking the largest single-day net outflow in three weeks, according to data from SoSoValue. This trend highlights increasing caution among market participants, as geopolitical uncertainties and escalating bond yields loom over the cryptocurrency landscape.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the outflows, experiencing a $41.9 million exit. Other notable funds, including those from Fidelity, Bitwise, and Ark Invest, also witnessed outflows exceeding $30 million each. Analysts suggest that these withdrawals stem from a combination of short-term market positioning and broader economic apprehensions.
Despite these short-term movements, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust. Analysts point to prior instances of sustained inflows during periods of price weakness, indicating a more resilient and long-term investment perspective. Research released by Wall Street firm Bernstein suggests that Bitcoin may have already established a price floor and could see its value rise as high as $150,000 by the end of 2026, spurred largely by a trend towards increasing institutional ownership.
The report underscores a shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamic, moving from a phase dominated by retail speculation to one increasingly underpinned by ETFs, corporate treasuries, and structured financing solutions. Recent price movements seem to support this view, as the current decline in Bitcoin’s value has not triggered the forced liquidations that characterized previous downturns. Bernstein attributes this stability to the persistent demand from ETFs and the escalating involvement of traditional financial institutions in offering crypto-related services.
In the shorter term, however, Bitcoin faces challenges due to a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which has added pressure to riskier assets. Since late February, the U.S. 10-year yield has increased by approximately 45 basis points, nearing 4.40%. Investors are particularly focused on the 4.50%-4.60% range, a threshold that has historically prompted policy responses from the government. Higher yields make government bonds more attractive compared to non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, potentially dampening investor interest in speculative investments.
Analysts caution that if yields continue their ascent towards 5%, it could lead to a significant rebalancing of portfolios away from digital assets. In a recent report, CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju noted that until geopolitical tensions, such as those surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, resolve and oil prices stabilize, inflation and yields may continue to rise.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $66,673, below its 20-day exponential moving average of $70,058 and resistance at $71,907. Olanrewaju warned that ongoing selling pressure, including from miners, could push Bitcoin toward a support level of $65,071. Conversely, a recovery surpassing the 20-day EMA could shift market momentum, enabling Bitcoin to challenge its resistance at $71,907 and potentially rise toward $75,304.
