Bitcoin’s price has experienced a decline of over 1% within the last 24 hours, currently trading close to $108,200. This drop follows increased selling activity that prevented the cryptocurrency from reaching a potential breakout point after it had peaked earlier in the day. Despite this short-term selling pressure, data from both on-chain metrics and chart analysis suggest that the current pause may be temporary, indicating the possibility of a broader price rebound in the near future.
Analysis of the MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s market value against its perceived fair value, reveals that it remains near a six-month low of 1.96. This figure has shown a slight increase from 1.90, noted as a three-month low earlier this month. Observers of the market consider this small “higher low” significant, especially as the last time this pattern emerged between September 25 and September 27, the MVRV saw a rise from 2.09 to 2.11, while Bitcoin’s price surged nearly 14%, climbing from $109,692 to $124,714 within a week.
Additionally, the Spent Coins Age Band metric, which monitors the amount of Bitcoin held for specific time frames, reinforces the MVRV data. It revealed that the amount of coins held for 365 days to two years fell dramatically from 25,263 to just 103 BTC units, indicating a 99.6% decrease during the period from October 14 to October 22. Similarly, the amount of short-term coins held for 7 to 30 days plummeted from 13,273 to just 145, representing a 98.9% drop since the previous day. These sharp declines suggest that both long- and short-term holders are reducing their selling activity, indicating a potential easing of selling pressure.
Furthermore, the BTC price chart still indicates a reversal setup despite the recent bearish rejection. On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is moving within a falling wedge pattern, historically associated with upward breakouts. The price briefly tested the upper boundary of this wedge around $114,000 but faced resistance, causing a retreat back to approximately $108,000. However, formation of a doji candle signals indecision among both buyers and sellers, a common precursor to a potential reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also been identified as supporting this bullish perspective. It shows a divergence where, while Bitcoin’s price made lower lows between September 25 and October 21, the RSI recorded higher lows, suggesting diminishing selling pressure. Should Bitcoin manage to break above the $111,500 level, it could signify a short-term breakout targeting $114,000. A strong close above this threshold might pave the way for further upward movement to reach $116,000, with even higher targets of around $124,200 being attainable if buying momentum increases.
Conversely, a slip below $107,500 would hinder this positive outlook, and a decline beneath $103,500 would undermine any bullish sentiment entirely.
