Bitcoin’s price outlook for 2026 is generating a divide among prominent asset managers and investment firms, with opinions ranging from bullish optimism to cautious skepticism.
On one side, companies such as VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein, and Coinbase project a robust rebound for Bitcoin, forecasting a potential new all-time high of $150,000. Notably, Bitwise and VanEck suggest that the historical four-year cycle may have concluded after Bitcoin ended 2025 in negative territory, which contrasts with its established market behaviors. This shift indicates that the cryptocurrency market could align tightly with U.S. equities, potentially minimizing the severity of any traditional bear markets.
Contrastingly, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, expressed doubts regarding these optimistic projections. He pointed to a critical price threshold for Bitcoin, articulating that $65,000, the previous high, serves as a pivotal marker, with a concerning level of $45,000 looming below it. Timmer underscored the possibility of Bitcoin consolidating for up to a year, which might allow it to retest the $65,000 level, referencing the Bitcoin Power Law and his proprietary models. Many bearish analysts foresee a rebound opportunity in the $65,000 to $75,000 range for the anticipated 2027-2028 cycle.
Recent data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin signaled the onset of a bear market as of early November, slipping below the one-year Moving Average. Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, corroborated this bearish sentiment, highlighting a declining capital growth momentum observable through the Realized Cap indicator. Historical analysis demonstrates that periods of stagnation or decline in the Realized Cap correspond with previous bear markets, such as those from 2018 to 2020 and 2022 to 2023. The advent of bearish indicators in November 2025 has raised concerns regarding potential market distress, which may undermine the bullish outlook projected by several industry players.
Nevertheless, VanEck remains steadfast in its belief that the current market cycle has yet to reach its peak. Matthew Sigel, the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, emphasized that indicators like the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) are still below critical levels that would signify a market top. With a current RUP reading of 0.43, he indicated that there may still be room for an upward rally, despite Bitcoin having climbed to $126,000 in the previous year.
In conclusion, while some analysts foresee potential difficulties for Bitcoin in the near future, including a significant dip below $65,000, others maintain hope for a new bullish cycle, emphasizing that key indicators do not yet reflect a market top.
