The price of Bitcoin witnessed a significant decline overnight following joint military actions by the United States and Israel in Iran. The operation targeted numerous military sites as part of an effort to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and eliminate key military figures. In the immediate aftermath, Bitcoin’s value plummeted from $65,572 to $63,176 within a single hour.
However, the cryptocurrency made a notable recovery in the hours following the initial drop, trading at approximately $65,051, reflecting a daily loss of around 0.8% and a total decline of 5.2% over the past week. Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, experienced similar initial downturns but have also regained much of their losses, with daily decreases of less than 2%.
The abrupt market movement triggered a surge in crypto liquidations, with CoinGlass reporting about $490 million in liquidated positions over the last 24 hours. Bitcoin and Ethereum longs were the most affected, accounting for liquidations worth $196 million and $132 million, respectively. At its lowest point, Bitcoin was approximately 50% off its all-time high of over $126,000 achieved last October, marking a 23% decline over the past month. It started this year at around $87,000.
The crypto market has historically reacted to geopolitical events, and the latest military escalation is consistent with that trend. A similar market response was observed during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. As a reaction to the airstrikes, Iran initiated retaliatory measures targeting U.S. military assets in the region. Reports have surfaced regarding civilian casualties in Iran, with at least 85 deaths reported due to bombings of various locations, including a girls’ school in the Minah province.
Amid these turbulent developments, users on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Dastan, have markedly increased their expectations that the Iranian government may collapse before October, assigning a 51% probability to that scenario—an increase of 20% in just one day.
