Bitcoin experienced a significant drop today, moving from an intraday peak of $104,000 down to $98,113, effectively erasing earlier gains and signaling a pivotal shift in price dynamics. The decline began during the morning trading session as the cryptocurrency steadily decreased from the high $102,000s, reaching a low of $97,870. This recent downturn brings Bitcoin’s price to levels not seen since early May, specifically around May 8, as per reports from Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Following that time, Bitcoin maintained a price above $100,000 for over 40 days before retreating to the $98,000 mark in late June.
One contributing factor to this drop appears to be the activity of long-term Bitcoin holders, who are reportedly selling off at record volumes. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that approximately 815,000 BTC have been sold in the last 30 days, marking the highest sell-off since early 2024. This selling pressure coincides with a decline in both spot and ETF demand, as profit-taking has dominated the market. Notably, a staggering $3 billion in realized gains was recorded on November 7 alone. Furthermore, institutional buying has also decreased, dropping below the daily mining supply, adding to the sell pressure. Current prices hover near the critical 365-day moving average of around $102,000; failure to maintain this level could lead to even more significant losses, as suggested by analysis from Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Analysts at Bitfinex have likened the present Bitcoin pullback to previous mid-cycle retracements. They note that the recent decline from October’s peak closely resembles the typical 22% drawdown seen in the bull market spanning from 2023 to 2025. They emphasized that even at around $100,000, nearly 72% of the total Bitcoin supply remains profitable. They predict a short relief rally might occur but assert that a sustained recovery will necessitate new demand entering the market.
According to research from The Block, analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the current production cost of Bitcoin sits around $94,000, establishing a historical price floor that suggests limited further downside. They attribute the rising production costs to increased network difficulty, which has contributed to Bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio remaining low when compared to historical trends. JPMorgan holds an optimistic 6–12 month price projection of approximately $170,000 for Bitcoin.
This market movement comes on the heels of a historic 43-day government shutdown, which has now concluded following the signing of a funding bill by President Trump. Although federal operations are gradually resuming, the recovery process will be slow, with federal workers still awaiting backpay and potential delays in air travel lingering. Timot Lamarre, director of market research at Unchained, referred to Bitcoin as a “canary-in-the-coal-mine for liquidity drying up in the market.” He noted that the recent government shutdown led to a swelling of the Treasury General Account, which absorbed liquidity. He seems optimistic that with the government’s reopening, increased liquidity will positively affect Bitcoin’s dollar price in the near term.
Despite the bullish sentiment prevalent in the market, the Bitcoin price has continued to descend deeper into the month. Bitcoin’s performance remains closely tied to the Nasdaq, although recent reports from Wintermute indicate a concerning pattern: Bitcoin reacts more severely to declines in stock markets than it does to gains, demonstrating a “negative skew.” This trend is often observed in bear markets rather than during periods when Bitcoin is approaching all-time highs, suggesting that investors are weary rather than euphoric.
Two main factors appear to be steering this behavior. Firstly, investor focus and capital flows have shifted towards equities in 2025, with major technology and growth stocks capturing much of the risk appetite that could have otherwise been directed towards cryptocurrencies. Secondly, liquidity in the crypto space appears thinner than usual, with stalled stablecoin issuance, slowed ETF inflows, and unfulfilled exchange depth contributing to more pronounced downside movements, widening the performance gap. Nevertheless, Wintermute has noted that Bitcoin is holding up relatively well, remaining less than 20% below its all-time high. This unusual pattern at current price levels may reflect Bitcoin’s increasing maturity as a macro asset.
