The recent trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) has seen it extend its pullback, showing a decline of approximately 3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 6.6% over the week. This downturn has resulted in Bitcoin falling below the $90,000 mark, further distancing the cryptocurrency from its ambitious $100,000 target. Nevertheless, this drop is not unprecedented; Bitcoin has experienced similar pullbacks in the past, often followed by rebounds once certain technical conditions are met.
A key factor in the potential for recovery lies in the dynamics of market momentum. On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin displays a hidden bullish divergence. During the period from mid-December to late January, while Bitcoin’s price formed higher lows, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) created lower lows. This divergence indicates a reduction in selling pressure, suggesting that the market may be stabilizing.
The next critical aspect of the rebound scenario is the exponential moving averages (EMAs). Recently, Bitcoin lost both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs on the daily chart—indicators that help identify early trend shifts by placing more emphasis on recent price movements. Historically, following pullbacks, Bitcoin has often rallied sharply once it reclaimed these averages. For instance, notable rebounds occurred with gains of 16.9% in late June, 11.7% in late September, and 10% in early January.
If the stabilization of the RSI leads to a price recovery that successfully reclaims the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, the potential to reach $100,000 remains feasible. However, the question arises as to whether on-chain metrics are aligning to support this technical outlook.
On-chain data reveals a somewhat constructive environment among large holders, known as whales, who possess between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC. Their numbers have remained steady since January 14, indicating that these significant players are not instigating the current sell-off. In fact, they appear to be maintaining their positions, which suggests ongoing conviction in the asset.
Long-term holders, or “hodlers,” are also playing a role in absorbing supply. Wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days have increased their inflows by 62%, even during the recent price decline. However, the situation is complicated by the selling behavior of very long-term holders, those who have held their Bitcoin for over a year. This group has intensified their selling activity, with net outflows growing from approximately 25,700 BTC on January 14 to about 68,650 BTC by January 20—a dramatic increase of 167% in distribution.
The ongoing conflict between these different types of holders is pivotal to Bitcoin’s price movement. To maintain the possibility of reaching $100,000, Bitcoin must reclaim critical resistance levels of $94,390 and $96,420. A daily close above these levels would signify a successful recovery of the EMAs and validate the rebound outlook.
Conversely, should Bitcoin fall and sustain a break below $87,830, it could undermine the RSI divergence and lead to deeper support around $84,350. Such an event would jeopardize the rebound thesis and suggest that the selling pressure from long-term holders could be overwhelming the market.
Ultimately, for Bitcoin to regain momentum and potentially approach the $100,000 mark, it will require confirmation of price momentum and a reclaim of key EMAs. Support from very long-term holders will also play a crucial role, with ongoing selling from this group likely delaying any significant recovery. The established fractals observed since mid-2025 could still guide Bitcoin back toward its previously sought-after target, but several key technical indicators and market behaviors must align favorably for that scenario to unfold.
