In the wake of a significant sell-off, Bitcoin may be on the verge of a notable rebound, as suggested by economist Timothy Peterson. He forecasts that the cryptocurrency could rise as much as 21% within the week, leveraging historical trends for October, which has traditionally been a strong month for Bitcoin.
Historically, October has seen an average gain of approximately 20.1% since 2013, positioning it as Bitcoin’s second-best month after November. This trend holds particular importance, especially given last Friday’s abrupt decrease in Bitcoin’s value, which briefly fell to $102,000 following an announcement from former President Donald Trump regarding tariffs on Chinese imports. However, the market has since shown signs of stabilization, with Bitcoin trading around $111,700, recovering from earlier highs of $125,100.
Peterson noted that significant drops exceeding 5% in October are quite rare, having occurred only four times in the last decade—in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. In three out of those four years, Bitcoin experienced a notable bounce back shortly thereafter, with increases of 16%, 4%, and 21%, respectively. Only in 2021 did Bitcoin encounter a minor decline of 3%.
Reflecting on these historical patterns, if Bitcoin were to repeat its strongest October performance from 2019, a potential rise from the recent low could see prices approaching around $124,000, just below its most recent all-time high.
Despite the turbulence in the market, many Bitcoin supporters remain optimistic. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, pointed out that there are still ample days left in October to secure gains. Michael van de Poppe, a prominent trader, suggested that the recent dip might represent the lowest point in its current cycle.
Some analysts have adopted a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s volatility, acknowledging that significant liquidation events are part of the cryptocurrency’s natural evolution. One commentator noted the likelihood of Bitcoin displaying similar volatile traits even at much higher price points in the future.
In another development, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino indicated that Bitcoin is approaching a crucial juncture. He posited that the next 100 days are critical, determining whether the cryptocurrency will embark on a parabolic rally or conclude its ongoing bull cycle. He observed that the Bollinger Bands indicator on Bitcoin’s weekly chart has tightened significantly, often signaling impending sharp price movements.
Severino cautioned about the possibility of “head fakes,” or false breakouts, in such scenarios, noting that Bitcoin struggled to break through the upper band despite briefly soaring to $126,000. Current trading levels around $122,700 suggest that it remains below peak levels, amidst tightening volatility. While some analysts express concerns regarding a potential breakdown, others point to indications that Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns are extending, hinting at further growth potential in the long run.
