Bitcoin’s profitability has experienced a significant rebound from its recent lows, yet current market conditions do not suggest a strong confirmation of renewed momentum, according to the latest analysis from Glassnode.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $111,000, consolidating within a range of $104,000 to $116,000 following considerable absorption by investors. Recent data indicates that the profitability of short-term holders, which had plummeted to just 42% during a recent selloff, has now bounced back to approximately 60%. Despite this recovery, Glassnode describes the current state of the market as “neutral but fragile,” emphasizing that renewed momentum will only be confirmed if Bitcoin’s price reclaims the range of $114,000 to $116,000.
The analysis also highlighted that Bitcoin has exited a euphoric phase that lasted for 3.5 months, as the cryptocurrency slipped below the 0.95-quantile cost basis. At present, Bitcoin trades between the 0.85 and 0.95 quantile cost basis, indicating a historical propensity for sideways consolidation within the $104,100 to $114,300 range.
On the demand side, off-chain indicators reflect a weakening interest in Bitcoin. Futures funding rates remain neutral but are trending softer, while inflows into spot ETFs, which had previously spurred earlier rallies, have tapered off. Inflows that were regularly exceeding 3,000 BTC on a daily basis since April have diminished to a mere 14-day average of about 540 BTC.
The Ethereum market is showing a similar trend of cooling, although Glassnode notes some structural differences. Traditional finance activity related to Ethereum has been characterized by increased cash-and-carry arbitrage trades, while Bitcoin demand remains predominantly directional.
Looking ahead, the report concludes that even though there has been accumulation within the $108,000 to $116,000 range, the recovery in profitability alone does not serve as a conclusive indicator of market strength. Glassnode warns that while reclaiming the $114,000 to $116,000 range would restore broader short-term holder profitability and bolster the bullish case, a decline below $104,000 could trigger a move towards $93,000 to $95,000.
