Bitcoin experienced a brief recovery over the weekend, surging past the $72,000 mark before falling back below $70,000 on Monday morning. As of latest reports, the cryptocurrency is down more than 3% in the past 24 hours. The volatility was particularly pronounced last week, which saw Bitcoin plummet to around $63,000, marking its lowest valuation since October 2024.
Despite the troubling trend, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has maintained a bullish outlook, reiterating a price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin by 2026. In a recent note, he characterized the current market downturn as “the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history,” attributing the price fluctuations to what he referred to as a “crisis of confidence” among investors.
Chhugani suggested that the market is experiencing a moment of self-imposed crisis among retail investors, despite a favorable backdrop that includes increased institutional adoption and the potential for a Bitcoin ETF wave. He remarked that with such positive catalysts on the horizon—such as increased institutional engagement and potential regulatory clarity—the current bear market could eventually give way to significant gains.
In a previous analysis, Chhugani had predicted that Bitcoin would find a bottom around the $60,000 range, cautioning that an eventual reversal could lead to what he refers to as the asset’s “most consequential cycle” in the first half of 2026.
Market dynamics have shown some improvement, as crypto liquidations have decreased to $344 million in the past 24 hours, significantly down from $2.42 billion on February 6, which included a staggering $1.26 billion tied to Bitcoin liquidations. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a reduction in outflows, with $318 million exiting last week, compared to $1.49 billion the week prior, according to SoSoValue data.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, emphasized that the ETF flow remains an essential metric to watch, asserting that ongoing outflows imply continued institutional de-leveraging. He noted that a stabilization in flows, even without fresh inflows, could signify a pivotal shift in market conditions.
Misir also highlighted the evolving supply landscape, which he sees as operating within a well-defined battleground. He identified key support in the low-$60,000s and significant resistance around the $80,000 level. Furthermore, data on long-term holders indicates that this range is critical for market structure, with heavy accumulation observed in the low-$60Ks while supply thickens near $80K, where previous recovery efforts have faltered.
As for the current bearish sentiment, Misir pointed out that at the $70,000 level, 9.3 million Bitcoin are underwater, marking the most considerable number of underwater assets since January 2023. He described this situation as a significant psychological moment in the market, with many recent buyers facing losses. This collective experience among investors could influence future selling behaviors, marking a notable period in Bitcoin’s ongoing market narrative.
