Bitcoin recently traded around $70,100, showing a slight decline of 0.1% since midnight UTC. The leading cryptocurrency has been caught in a narrow trading range of $71,700 to $69,000 over the past 48 hours, with volatility diminishing. This occurs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly with reports of a sixth ship purportedly attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices toward the $100 per barrel mark and heightening concerns about global energy supply. Despite these geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market appears relatively unaffected, with Hyperliquid’s HYPE token climbing 2.5% since midnight to approach the $40 threshold, while MORPHO, ETHFI, and XMR also posted gains.
In equity markets, U.S. stock futures indicated ongoing weakness, with both Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures dropping approximately 0.6% overnight. The Dollar Index (DXY) edged back toward 100 following Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, halting any speculation of upcoming interest rate cuts.
Examining derivatives, crypto futures open interest increased by 2% to reach $102 billion over the last 24 hours, with open interest in Bitcoin and Ether both rising by 2% and 4%, respectively. Annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume delta (CVD) remained flat to negative, suggesting that the recent uptick in open interest may stem more from defensive, bearish positioning rather than aggressive long bets. The increased activity surrounding the Hyperliquid’s HYPE token saw a notable 9% rise in the past day, yet demand for leveraged positions remains low, especially with futures open interest stabilizing at multimonth lows of about 40 million HYPE. Activity related to tether gold (XAUT) is also waning, with futures open interest dropping to 93.50 XAUT, the lowest level since February 28, a marked decline from early March highs.
Bitcoin and Ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices, BVIV and EVIV, have remained stable despite rising oil prices and falling U.S. stock futures, indicating that traders are not perceiving significant shifts in foreseeable risks or cross-asset impacts regarding major cryptocurrencies. On Deribit, the market shows strong interest in Bitcoin and Ether put options, which are currently priced at a premium compared to call options, with particular attention on the $20,000 put option—a bet that Bitcoin’s price may drop below that level.
In altcoin markets, resilience is evident even in a risk-averse landscape. The decentralized finance token SKY recorded a 7.6% gain within the last 24 hours, while the AI-oriented bittensor (TAO) advanced by approximately 4.5%. However, the midnight (NIGHT) token, originating from Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, has lagged, trading at $0.046 after a 10% decline in the past day, likely influenced by recent liquidity from its listing on Binance.
Overall, the altcoin-heavy CoinDesk 80 (CD80) Index outperformed, gaining 2.5%, while the Bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 (CD5) saw a more modest rise of 0.9%. The progression of the altcoin market may hinge on Bitcoin’s ability to break free from its current trading range. A successful breakout above $74,000, particularly if supported by strong volume, could trigger a rotation toward more speculative altcoins.
