Recent on-chain data analysis reveals that Bitcoin is revisiting a pivotal level that has historically influenced the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory. As highlighted by analytics firm Glassnode in a recent discussion on X, Bitcoin is currently retesting the 0.85 supply quantile, a benchmark that has often determined the asset’s movement.
The 0.85 quantile is part of Glassnode’s “Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model,” which identifies critical price levels that correlate with significant investor profitability. A detailed examination of a chart shared by Glassnode illustrates the fluctuations of these levels over the past few years.
During a recent rally leading to Bitcoin’s all-time high, the cryptocurrency surged above the 0.95 quantile, indicating that approximately 95% of the supply was in profit. However, following a market downturn, Bitcoin has since dropped below this level. Currently, the asset is making repeated attempts to retest the 0.85 quantile, pegged at around $109,000. Although Bitcoin has briefly dipped below this threshold, it has consistently managed to recover back above it. Presently, it is trading near this critical mark, suggesting that roughly 85% of Bitcoin’s supply is reflecting a net unrealized gain.
Historically, Bitcoin’s interactions with the 0.85 quantile have had substantial implications for its price. Glassnode notes that maintaining this level has often led to significant rallies, while falling below it usually prompts a descent toward the lower 0.75 quantile, currently equivalent to $98,000. The next critical question for investors is whether Bitcoin can sustain above the 0.85 quantile, or if a retreat is imminent.
Additionally, recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price below the $107,000 mark coincide with negative readings on the Coinbase Premium Gap. This metric, which gauges the price differences between Bitcoin listed on Coinbase in USD and Binance in USDT, offers insights into trading behaviors across these platforms. According to analyst Maartunn from CryptoQuant, the premium gap observed a positive trend on Wednesday but shifted to negative by Thursday, indicating that Coinbase traders—largely comprised of American institutional investors—were selling more aggressively than their counterparts on Binance, who are primarily global whales.
In the wake of this selling pressure on Coinbase, Bitcoin has seen some recovery, climbing back to approximately $109,500 and reclaiming the crucial 0.85 quantile once more. The current market sentiment and future performance will closely hinge on whether Bitcoin can sustain its presence above this benchmark level.
