Bitcoin has seen a modest rise of approximately 1.4% in the last 24 hours, trading at around $113,999.80. This uptick comes as investors gear up for pivotal inflation data from the U.S., expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest-rate decisions. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is also set to announce its interest-rate decision, with expectations leaning towards a stable rate that could surprise market players.
Economists predict a slight increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. This forecast, along with recent job data revisions indicating a near 1 million jobs, suggests heightened possibilities for upcoming rate cuts. As a result, betting platforms like Polymarket now indicate a 79% likelihood of a 25 basis-point rate reduction this month, while expectations for a steeper 50 basis-point cut have surged from 5.4% to 18% within a week.
Such a rate cut could favor risk assets, which is reflected in the market movements—spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted nearly $928 million in net inflows yesterday, pushing Bitcoin to $114,000, marking its highest level since early August.
Despite the bullish sentiment, some analysts are expressing caution. Jake Ostrovskis, the head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, highlighted concerns about persistent inflation and slowing economic growth, raising fears of stagflation. He noted a shift in investor sentiment since late August, with a trend away from Ethereum to Bitcoin, reflected in protective options trading behavior. This strategic positioning may signify that traders are preparing for potential easing in market pressures, with many feeling relatively safeguarded ahead of a likely rate-cutting cycle.
In parallel, gold prices are hovering near historical highs. Analysts from QCP Capital remarked on the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio nearing resistance levels that have historically indicated crypto market bottoms. They suggest that Bitcoin may be establishing a new low point, setting the stage for a significant upward movement.
Beyond economic indicators, geopolitical tensions are causing underlying concerns. Recent violations of Polish airspace by Russia have prompted NATO interventions, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stating that this is the closest the region has come to open conflict since World War II, despite Moscow denying any responsibility.
As the market braces for critical economic announcements, several cryptocurrency events are on the horizon. The forecast for the U.S. Core CPI shows estimates of 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. Noteworthy token events include the unlocking of 2.2% of Aptos’s circulating supply, worth approximately $50.89 million.
In the altcoin sector, Mantle (MNT) has surged, hitting a record high of $1.62 driven by significant trading volumes on Bybit. With a whopping 71% annualized return for staking MNT on Coinbase—significantly outperforming Ether’s 1.86%—over two-thirds of MNT’s total supply has been staked, leading to tighter market conditions amid increasing demand.
On the derivatives side, open interest in Bitcoin futures remains high, just shy of last month’s peak, while activity in altcoin futures shows caution ahead of the CPI report. The BTC implied volatility index has recently indicated stability, suggesting limited expectations for major price movements in the immediate future.
Overall, Bitcoin is trading at $113,916.87, reflecting a 1.5% rise, while Ethereum is up 1.93% at $4,414.68. As the broader market awaits crucial economic indicators, expectations for changes in monetary policy could ripple through risk assets and the crypto ecosystem alike.
