Bitcoin’s Google search volume has dropped to an 11-month low as it faces increased competition from gold, which has recently surged to record highs amidst a more stable economic backdrop. The latest Google Trends data indicates that interest in Bitcoin has dipped to levels not seen since October 2024, despite notable institutional investment flows into Bitcoin-related Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) early in 2025.
The contrasting fortunes of gold and Bitcoin underscore a broader shift in investor sentiment, with gold witnessing a remarkable increase of 38% since the beginning of 2025, compared to Bitcoin’s comparatively modest rise of 18%. This divergence is symptomatic of a fundamental transition in market psychology, with investors increasingly favoring safety over speculative opportunities in the face of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, according to Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan.
As of now, Bitcoin has remained stagnant since May 2025, trading around $111,565, while gold has reached a peak price of $3,613.48. Experts attribute this trend to cyclical patterns in search interest, linked closely to spikes in retail attention, as articulated by Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC. Macro factors such as anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, and strong central bank buying are contributing to gold’s upward trajectory.
Analysts have noted a historical lead-lag dynamic between the two assets, suggesting that price movements in gold often precede significant shifts in Bitcoin’s value. Lawrence Lepard, co-founder of Equity Management Associates LLC, highlighted this pattern in a recent tweet, suggesting that a gold price breakout could lead to a substantial rally in Bitcoin.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, echoed this sentiment, asserting that every major rally in gold typically results in an even larger breakout for Bitcoin. Lepard predicts that if gold surpasses the $3,500 mark, it could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach $140,000.
Experts remain cautiously optimistic about the potential for capital rotation back into Bitcoin, particularly if macroeconomic indicators align favorably. Lim points to Federal Reserve rate cuts as a crucial factor that could bolster investor appetite for Bitcoin, while Young emphasizes the need for sustained reflation expectations and strong on-chain signals to drive a shift in allocations from gold to Bitcoin.
Both Lim and Young anticipate that rotations could become more pronounced during risk-on phases. The prevailing sentiment among experts is bullish regarding Bitcoin’s potential as an inflation hedge, with Lim forecasting price targets of $120,000 to $150,000 in 2025, with even more ambitious projections of $200,000 under optimal conditions. Young’s moderate bull case suggests a price range of $125,000 to $250,000, driven largely by ETF trends and favorable policy developments.
In a contrasting view, traders on the prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, are less optimistic, with nearly 60% expecting that gold will outperform Bitcoin in 2025. As both assets navigate fluctuating market dynamics, the forthcoming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Bitcoin and its relationship with gold.
