Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss metrics have seen a significant decline since peaking at nearly $90,000 in late January. The downturn, which has been characterized by increasing realized losses across the market, reached a critical low of around -$330 million on February 6. This period marked substantial capitulation as Bitcoin’s price fluctuated in the $63,000 to $65,000 range.
Following this steep decline, selling pressure began to ease, leading to a stabilization in price between $68,000 and $70,000. Despite this mild recovery, realized losses continued to dominate trading metrics, indicating that many investors were still liquidating their positions during any recovery attempts. Remnants of positive trading behavior surfaced intermittently, evidenced by brief profit-taking spikes. Notably, on February 25, realized profits soared to over $5 million per hour when BTC briefly reached $69,400, although this surge failed to maintain upward momentum, resulting in price stalls below the $70,000 resistance level.
Current market conditions suggest ongoing consolidation between the $66,000 and $70,000 range, largely due to persistent profit-taking and a lack of robust trading volume. On-chain supply metrics, however, disclose a more structural shift within the market. Data from the Entity-Adjusted Unspent Realized Profit Distribution (URPD) indicates active Bitcoin accumulation concentrated within the $60,000 to $70,000 range. This accumulation intensified notably as prices approached historically significant correction levels, with the largest concentration detected around $63,000 to $64,000, accumulating nearly 850,000 BTC.
The recent price corrections have redistributed holdings towards stronger investor hands, forming potential support bases as more than 400,000 BTC now rests between $60,000 and $70,000, establishing this region as a significant liquidity cluster.
Moreover, signs of renewed demand have emerged from the U.S. markets, as indicated by the positive shift in the Coinbase Premium Gap, which rose to +14.7% on February 27 following a prolonged stretch of negative readings. Previously, this premium had dipped as low as -200, suggesting diminished U.S. spot demand when Bitcoin hovered around $67,900. The newfound positivity might signify that buyers on Coinbase are willing to pay higher prices for BTC, a trend historically linked to substantial price increases, such as the rally from below $100,000 to nearly $125,000 in late 2024.
However, caution remains as the market has experienced several short-lived recoveries in the past, underscoring the importance of observing three to five consecutive positive sessions to validate sustained institutional interest and stronger market participation.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s realized capitulation appears to have stabilized since the significant loss in early February, trading momentum remains constrained. The observed accumulation in the $60,000 to $70,000 corridor, combined with a resurgence in demand indicators from U.S. markets, suggests a potentially strong support structure for the cryptocurrency moving forward.
