Bitcoin closed the third quarter of 2025 at an all-time high, finishing September approximately 5% higher at nearly $114,000. This performance has sparked optimism among investors, who believe that the cryptocurrency’s price could rise further as the year comes to a close. Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, often characterized by seasonal downturns. However, in years when Bitcoin managed to finish September on a positive note—such as in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024—it has typically led to significant gains in the fourth quarter, averaging over 50%.
Analysis reveals that early-quarter strength is crucial for potential performance. Since 2015, October has seen average gains of 21.8%, followed by November adding 10.8%. If these trends hold true this year, Bitcoin could surpass the $150,000 mark before the year ends. This anticipated surge is bolstered by the recent April halving event, which reduced the asset’s new supply, commonly associated with upward price pressure.
Despite trading sideways in recent months, several liquidity indicators are suggesting a potential breakout. For instance, the trends in global M2 growth, stablecoin supply, and a rally in gold—which Bitcoin has been closely tracking with a 40-day lag—are all indicating upward momentum.
In a significant turn of events, Bitcoin surged past $118,000 as the U.S. government officially shut down at midnight, following Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. This turmoil in government led to a flight towards safe-haven assets, lifting gold to a historic high of over $3,900 an ounce. The shutdown has immediate implications for federal workers, Social Security recipients, and travelers, also affecting markets due to halted economic data. Important financial reports, including weekly jobless claims and mid-October inflation figures, face delays, which will likely complicate Federal Reserve policy considerations.
Institutional interest is also contributing to the bullish atmosphere surrounding Bitcoin. Notably, BlackRock transferred more than $130 million worth of Bitcoin onto Coinbase, an action interpreted by many in the market as a sign of potential inflows into their investment products. Historically, Bitcoin has averaged a nearly 58% gain in the fourth quarter since 2015, outperforming all other three-month periods. The outcome for 2025 will hinge on investors’ ability to maintain their risk appetite in the coming months.
