Bitcoin’s price has recently shown a decline, slipping below $110,500 and dropping more than 2% in a single day. This downturn has raised concerns among investors regarding the potential for a fourth-quarter rally, particularly due to an analysis from noted analyst PlanC. According to PlanC, using historical Bitcoin halving cycles as a predictive tool for price peaks may not hold statistical validity. He has likened this method to the coin toss fallacy, arguing that the changes in market dynamics make previous cycle-based forecasts unreliable. His stance has contributed to a wave of cautious sentiment among traders, with many now doubting whether Bitcoin can surpass its previous high of $124,128 recorded last month.
Market surveys indicate that around 70% of respondents anticipate a price drop to $105,000 before Bitcoin may turn upward again. This contrast highlights the growing skepticism about the bullish predictions for Bitcoin, as PlanC’s analysis suggests that psychological factors are more at play than fundamental metrics in speculating future price movements.
Despite this hesitance, macroeconomic indicators are lending some support to Bitcoin. Recent U.S. job statistics were disappointing, showing only 22,000 jobs added in August, a stark deviation from expectations. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, alongside downward revisions in previous employment figures. As a consequence, Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar index has dipped by 0.70%, and market sentiments are pivoting toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Lower interest rates typically favor Bitcoin, as they create more favorable borrowing costs and lead to a weaker dollar.
In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin shows a neutral short- and long-term outlook based on its recent market behavior. On the 4-hour chart, it appears to be forming an ascending triangle, with resistance at $113,400 and a 50-day moving average supporting price action at $110,021. If Bitcoin manages to break through the resistance at $113,400 with strong trading volume, potential targets could rise toward $115,400 and $117,150. Conversely, failure to hold the resistance might result in a decline towards the support level at $108,770.
From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin maintains its position within a rising weekly channel, suggesting that the next significant resistance could be around $134,500. If upward momentum continues, Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a possible bullish trajectory towards $171,000 and even $231,000. Bullish buyers are expected to remain active between the support range of $95,000 to $100,000, ensuring the broader upward trend remains intact.
In the realm of innovation, Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) has emerged as a prospective solution, marketed as a Bitcoin-native Layer 2 powered by Solana’s Virtual Machine. This initiative aims to enhance the Bitcoin ecosystem by facilitating fast and cost-effective smart contracts, decentralized applications, and the creation of meme coins. By leveraging Bitcoin’s inherent security along with Solana’s performance capabilities, this project promises to introduce new possibilities for seamless Bitcoin bridging and scalable decentralized app development.
The ongoing presale of Bitcoin Hyper has already attracted significant investment, exceeding $14.1 million, with a limited allocation still available. Currently priced at $0.012865 per HYPER token, this figure is poised to increase as the presale progresses, offering an enticing proposition for early investors looking for exposure in this innovative space.
