Good Morning, Asia. Here’s the latest update from the markets:
Bitcoin has started the Thursday trading session in Asia above $123,000, showing a trajectory likened to a rocket streaking through fog. Analysts attribute this robust rally to significant ETF inflows, accumulation by mid-tier investors, and widespread belief that this upswing has yet to reach its peak. This confidence is supported by three key signals identified by notable market analysts.
According to QCP Capital, capital appears to be shifting away from inflated AI equities toward “credibility hedges” such as gold and Bitcoin, amid increasing policy uncertainty. Glassnode highlights record levels of ETF inflows alongside the conversion of prior resistance levels into newfound support due to mid-tier accumulation. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant notes that on-chain profit-taking remains well below historical norms, indicating that the current rally may have further room to expand, even as leverage in the market increases.
The data suggests a market that is structurally bullish but may have a tactical crowding situation: there are solid foundations below the surface, but speculative excess at the upper levels. However, the same data also signals potential complacency. With futures open interest reaching all-time highs and funding rates above 8%, the market may be exposed to a sharp downturn if momentum falters. Analysts describe this situation as a classic “strong trend, weak hands” scenario, typically requiring a reset of leverage before a new upward move can be established.
This current pullback is seen as a test of that leverage, working to reset positions and reestablish market balance. QCP noted that recent movements appeared to be more about market positioning than policy adjustments, while CryptoQuant remarked that profit-taking remains muted compared to earlier market peaks.
The perspectives among analysts are not fully aligned, however. Glassnode emphasizes the necessity of flushing excess leverage for a more stable rally, while CryptoQuant suggests there is still room for upward movement before the market reaches a euphoric phase. QCP describes the ongoing developments as a macro shift towards “credibility hedges” like gold and Bitcoin.
Traders are closely watching Bitcoin’s ascent from multiple viewpoints. As funding rates remain elevated and open interest continues its upward trend, there may soon be an opportunity for the reset that has been anticipated. The real question facing market participants is whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above $120,000 and if the upcoming dip will confirm the rally’s strength or reveal its vulnerabilities.
In market movements, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $121,894.62, remaining steady after recent pullbacks, bolstered by ETF inflows and whale activity. While short-term momentum has slowed, robust institutional demand and the broader narrative around economic debasement keep the upward trend intact as October approaches—a period typically favorable for market rallies.
Ethereum is trading at roughly $4,005.03, demonstrating resilience after some volatility, as traders rotate back into major layer-1 assets. Optimism persists due to strong ETF inflows, positive sentiment ahead of December’s Fusaka upgrade, and renewed institutional interest in staking and decentralized finance yields.
Gold, meanwhile, has surged past $4,000 for the first time, marking its 40th record high this year. Factors driving this increase include geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty in the United States, and steady demand from central banks, particularly China, which has recorded eleven consecutive months of gold purchases.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index climbed by 1.1% on Thursday, with SoftBank experiencing a 10% surge following its agreement to purchase ABB’s robotics unit for $5.4 billion. Optimism surrounding Prime Minister-elect Sanae Takaichi’s expansionist strategies and ongoing accommodative monetary policy contributed to the gains witnessed across technology and cyclical stocks.
In the crypto sphere, discussions are heating up with figures like Grant Cardone advising Bitcoin investors to reconsider chasing gold’s historic rally. Meanwhile, Coinbase is expanding its team by hiring a specialist for token and governance research for its Base project, and a tokenization firm backed by Brevan Howard is increasing funds in response to the growing momentum for real-world assets.
