Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged more than 4.5% on Wednesday, surpassing the $118,000 mark in afternoon trading, driven by uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S. government shutdown. This uptick comes as investors anticipate seasonal advantages for cryptocurrency markets, particularly given that October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has shown gains in 10 of those years during October, leading many in the crypto community to coin the term “Uptober.”
September is typically a weaker month for Bitcoin, but this year saw a 4% increase as it closed out the month, setting higher expectations for gains in October. Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, noted that while recent volatility had briefly sent Bitcoin down to $108,000, recoveries often create bullish setups, especially ahead of a seasonally strong October.
Aside from calendar-driven factors, Wall Street analysts are identifying other potential catalysts that could propel Bitcoin’s performance this month. The robust state of the Treasury General Account, which acts as the government’s checking account, has allayed fears of liquidity being siphoned from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies into bonds. Moreover, following the passage of significant legislation in July, stablecoin activity has surged, adding another layer of support for the crypto market.
Samir Kerbage, a senior investment officer at Hashdex, expressed optimism regarding stablecoin adoption as a driver for the next wave of cryptocurrency growth. He anticipates this shift could take between six months to a year before significantly impacting cryptocurrency prices. The market has seen a notable increase in the supply of Circle’s USDC stablecoin, which is up 19% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $73.6 billion—this marks a sharp increase compared to the mere 2% growth observed in the second quarter, as reported by analyst Jeff Cantwell.
Cantwell highlighted the demand for Circle’s stablecoin spread across multiple blockchains, with 62% on Ethereum, 14% on Solana, and 8% on Hyperliquid.
Looking ahead, a potential fourth-quarter bounce in Bitcoin prices could pave the way for ambitious targets set by analysts. Bernstein has suggested that Bitcoin could reach a cycle peak between $150,000 and $200,000 within the next six to twelve months. This aligns with their outlook of a long, challenging bull run extending into 2027. Fundstrat analysts are similarly optimistic about ether’s price trajectory, predicting it could hit $10,000 by year-end, or even surge as high as $15,000 in a best-case scenario. Notably, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee also chairs BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest Ethereum treasury company, which holds over $11 billion in ether.
As trading continues, the crypto market remains watchful of upcoming developments, particularly in relation to government policies and market dynamics that could further influence Bitcoin’s performance in the coming weeks.
