In 2025, just one Bitcoin treasury company was able to outperform the S&P 500, highlighting a significant downturn for the sector. According to a report from BitcoinTreasuries.net, The Blockchain Group, a French treasury firm, surged approximately 164% since the start of the year. In contrast, competing treasury companies struggled significantly, with Strategy experiencing a 12% decline, Metaplanet suffering a nearly 33% loss, and Nakamoto facing an alarming drop of over 98% despite initially raising more than $600 million for Bitcoin purchases.
The report reveals that a striking 60% of Bitcoin treasuries are currently underwater on their investments, indicating a widespread failure of the treasury model. John Fakhoury, CEO of Stacking Sats, stated, “The premium era is over,” indicating a shift towards a landscape where only firms with disciplined strategies and solid business execution will endure.
Between 2024 and early 2025, Bitcoin treasury companies had raised substantial sums, capitalizing on trading their stocks at high premiums relative to their Bitcoin holdings. The most notable case was Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which raised over $20 billion since August 2020 by promoting the idea that Bitcoin would outstrip traditional assets. However, with 195 firms now competing under the same premise, the initial lucrative trade has begun to falter, pushing many firms away from digital assets.
Notably, treasury purchases have dramatically plummeted. In November, only 28 companies acquired Bitcoin, a staggering drop from the 168 purchases recorded in July, representing an 83% decline from peak buying levels. This downturn reflects the eroded confidence in the model of raising funds through equity and debt sales, which has severely impacted capital available for Bitcoin acquisitions.
The sustainability of the treasury model relied heavily on rising Bitcoin prices and consistent equity premiums. Unfortunately, both factors have diminished. Bitcoin prices fell by 25% from their October highs beyond $120,000, adversely affecting treasury stocks even more significantly. As equity values collapsed, the premium investors had previously enjoyed disappeared, further damaging shareholder value.
For instance, Strategy, the front-runner in Bitcoin acquisitions since 2020, now trades at a 16% discount, a stark contrast to the sevenfold premium it commanded just two years prior. Similarly, Metaplanet, which once boasted a premium of 237%, has seen that figure plummet to just 7%.
The report paints a sobering picture for the Bitcoin treasury model, indicating that without a return to rising prices and equity premiums, many of these companies may struggle to survive in an increasingly challenging market landscape.
