In a startling revelation, a recent report by 10x Research has uncovered that retail investors pursuing Bitcoin treasury stocks, such as those held by companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, have collectively lost over $17 billion. This trend was fueled by optimism surrounding the institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which peaked around 2024 and early 2025. During this period, shares in these Bitcoin-holding firms were trading at inflated multiples, with valuations reaching three to four times their net asset value (NAV).
However, the euphoric market conditions eventually began to fray, particularly as geopolitical tensions ignited uncertainties, notably stemming from trade issues between the U.S. and China. As market sentiment cooled, the astronomical premiums that investors had previously paid for these treasury stocks began to crumble. Multiples plummeted to just 1.0 to 1.4 times NAV, leading to a massive loss of shareholder value, despite Bitcoin itself maintaining high prices.
Metaplanet, dubbed “Asia’s MicroStrategy,” saw its fortunes wane dramatically, halting its Bitcoin purchases in early October after experiencing a staggering nearly 47% drop in share price. This decline pushed the company’s enterprise value below the actual worth of its Bitcoin holdings, with substantial losses amounting to approximately $44.9 billion from its peak.
MicroStrategy also felt the pinch, as its stock premium fell from an eye-watering 4 times NAV to just 1.4 times. This erosion in value is indicative of the broader trend affecting even well-established players in the Bitcoin treasury space.
10x Research has characterized this decline as the end of the “financial magic” that once surrounded these companies. The once-lauded firms are now under pressure to demonstrate concrete value through alternative avenues such as lending, custody, or arbitrage strategies, all while facing increasingly skeptical investors.
The downturn’s mathematics paint a grim picture for those who invested in these treasury stocks. Many found themselves down approximately 67% compared to if they had simply held Bitcoin directly. This stark realization is prompting a significant shift among investors, with many now favoring spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or direct holdings that offer better transparency and stability in returns.
The report also warns of further declines, suggesting that the collapse in premiums could lead to an additional loss of $25 to $30 billion in market value by the end of the year, putting more pressure on speculative Bitcoin capital. To remain solvent in this new environment, affected firms must now strive for real yield strategies that generate returns of 15 to 20%, or face the possibility of collapse.
As the fallout from this bubble continues to resonate throughout the cryptocurrency market, investors are becoming increasingly wary of chasing hype over tangible assets, suggesting a potentially significant shift in investment strategies moving forward.
