Bitcoin kicked off October with considerable momentum, surging over 12% to reach an unprecedented all-time high of approximately $126,100. However, recently the cryptocurrency has faced intense selling pressure, particularly in the wake of tariff threats made by U.S. President Donald Trump. This volatile market period has raised concerns among investors, yet on-chain data suggests that market whales—large holders of Bitcoin—continue to show confidence in their positions.
According to a recent analysis on the CryptoQuant platform by an analyst known as PelinayPA, there has been minimal activity among Bitcoin whales despite the significant price fluctuations. The cryptocurrency dipped below $120,000 on a recent Friday, finding interim support around $116,000. However, President Trump’s tariff announcements triggered a swift market reaction, causing Bitcoin’s value to plummet to around $101,000.
The insights from PelinayPA are particularly based on the Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR), a metric provided by Binance that measures the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges from the top 10 largest addresses. This information is instrumental in discerning whether large investors are contributing to selling pressure or if they are refraining from making significant trades. A high EWR—value above 0.5—suggests that whales are moving their holdings to exchanges, indicating elevated selling intentions. Conversely, a low EWR—under 0.3—implies that whale activity is subdued, leading to less trading among major holders.
The analysis points out historical patterns in EWR readings. For instance, before the peak of the 2021 bull market, spikes in EWR suggested that whales were planning to offload their assets. In contrast, during the tail end of the 2022 bear market, EWR levels remained steady below 0.3, signaling accumulation and the groundwork for a potentially bullish turnaround.
Observations about the upcoming years reveal that as Bitcoin’s value surpassed $100,000, the EWR stabilized around 0.3, indicating that whales were more inclined to keep their investments rather than sell. Presently, EWR levels hover at 0.3, signifying that Bitcoin whales are maintaining a neutral to supportive outlook, avoiding any signs of significant sell-offs.
As for Bitcoin’s trajectory moving forward, the market’s direction is likely to be influenced by how traders adapt to changing macroeconomic factors and pivotal technical levels. Should the EWR climb toward 0.5, this could foretell increasing distribution, indicating that whales may start unloading their holdings in anticipation of potential market tops. Conversely, a decreasing EWR would be a bullish indicator, reflecting that major holders are opting to retain their assets and sustain confidence in the current rally.
PelinaPA suggests that a persistently low EWR could propel Bitcoin toward the $163,000 mark. Nonetheless, many investors might consider taking profits near the psychological barrier of $150,000. As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is currently priced at $110,517, reflecting a notable decline of nearly 8.36% in just 24 hours.
