Bitcoin’s market dominance is facing a notable decline, a trend that some analysts interpret as an indicator that an altcoin season may be on the horizon. Matthew Hyland, a well-known crypto analyst, highlighted this shift, noting that Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped more than 5% since May, currently standing at around 59.90%.
In a recent post on social media platform X, Hyland stated, “The reason why you should have confidence in the altcoin price action is because the BTC Dominance chart looks bearish and has looked bearish for many weeks.” He cautioned, however, that although there are signs of potential growth for altcoins, the current landscape might still be precarious. He described the recent relief rally in Bitcoin’s price as a “dead cat bounce” during an ongoing downtrend.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, Hyland suggested recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price might partly be influenced by manipulation from Wall Street institutions. In a video message, he expressed concerns that market movements could be strategically orchestrated to benefit major financial players. This manipulation narrative coincides with an overall uncertain market sentiment, particularly following Bitcoin’s dip below the $100,000 mark for the first time in four months, although it has since rebounded slightly to around $102,090.
Despite this minor recovery, Bitcoin has seen a decline of 15.6% over the past 30 days, contributing to a more muted outlook among traders and investors. The current metrics from CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index reflect a score of 28 out of 100, indicating that capital flows remain predominantly concentrated in Bitcoin, rather than a broader altcoin surge. The index last transitioned into “Altcoin Season” on October 8, immediately following Bitcoin’s peak at an all-time high of $125,100. However, this momentum quickly dissipated after a significant market crash just two days later, resulting in substantial liquidations and a retreat to more stable assets.
Looking ahead, many analysts posit that any forthcoming altcoin season may differ significantly from prior years, particularly the euphoric surges seen in 2017 and 2021. Nonetheless, the focus among traders is on whether Bitcoin’s declining dominance will continue, as this could set the stage for a more selective rally in altcoins.
In related developments, analysts from JPMorgan have expressed optimism regarding Bitcoin’s price trajectory, projecting it could reach approximately $170,000 within the next year. This bullish outlook stems from expectations that the perpetual futures market is stabilizing and that the recent volatility dynamics relative to gold are improving. Following a major liquidation event earlier in October, the analysts observed that Bitcoin’s open interest in perpetual futures is returning to historical norms, with excess leverage appearing to have been largely eliminated.
Moreover, JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that to align Bitcoin’s market cap with that of private-sector gold investments, valued at approximately $6.2 trillion, the cryptocurrency’s value would need to increase by roughly 67%. This calculation brings a theoretical fair value of Bitcoin close to the projected $170,000 mark.
