Bitcoin is nearing the peak of its four-year cycle, with projections of a significant price surge before the year concludes. Benjamin Cowen, the founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, discussed these insights on the David Lin Show, emphasizing that Bitcoin appears to be adhering to its historical trends.
Cowen explained that Bitcoin typically follows a pattern in post-election years, marked by an August price peak, a low in September, and a subsequent breakout in October. He pointed out that while past cycles have consistently reached their peaks in the fourth quarter, there is potential for Bitcoin to trade around $130,000 to $140,000 by December. However, he cautioned that even if the price rises toward $180,000, it is unlikely to surpass the $200,000 mark this cycle, attributing this to diminishing returns.
Key indicators to monitor include the weekly closure of Bitcoin prices below the 50-week moving average, currently on an upward trajectory through the $100,000 mark. This could suggest the final phases of the current bull run. Additionally, a decline in the two-year Treasury yield below 3.5% could indicate that risk-off sentiment is expanding beyond the cryptocurrency market.
In September, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped to around 57%, mirroring patterns seen in 2017, 2020, and 2021, which typically preceded a final price surge. Cowen anticipates that Bitcoin’s dominance will rise to 66% before liquidity shifts toward altcoins. He characterized Ethereum’s recent rebound as a simple return to its historical regression band against Bitcoin, predicting that it will likely hit its peak relative to Bitcoin by early November.
Once the anticipated price peak is reached, Cowen expects Bitcoin to mirror previous cycles, suggesting that a significant market correction could occur in 2026, potentially resulting in a 70% drawdown akin to crashes seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. He sees this as a prime buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Currently, Cowen is maintaining a portfolio composed of 80% Bitcoin and 20% Ethereum, emphasizing a strategy guided more by seasonal patterns than by media narratives.
