Bitcoin experienced a significant surge earlier this year, captivating the attention of investors and analysts alike. However, that momentum has not persisted, as the flagship cryptocurrency has surrendered its earlier gains. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin is on course to conclude 2025 negatively, after trading at approximately $88,242, which reflects a 6% decline year-to-date and a staggering 30% drop from its peak of around $126,000, reached in early October.
This year’s downturn can be attributed to a wave of liquidations among highly leveraged investors, which have undermined confidence in the crypto market. The situation has been exacerbated by rising economic uncertainties, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff threats against China and key trading partners.
Despite this bleak outlook, some experts suggest there may be hope for a Bitcoin resurgence in 2026. Among the factors that could catalyze a rally are the increasing number of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) aimed at broadening investor access to Bitcoin. Additionally, growing regulatory and policy support for the cryptocurrency sector is anticipated, as noted by Citi Research. Analyst Alex Saunders highlighted the expectation that $15 billion could flow into these ETFs, potentially driving up Bitcoin prices. Citi has set a base-case target of $143,000 for the cryptocurrency in the coming year, with a bullish target of $189,000, while its most pessimistic projection sits at $78,000.
Further support for Bitcoin’s potential rebound could come from upcoming legislative developments in the United States, particularly the anticipated passage of a market structure bill in 2026, which is expected to create a more favorable regulatory environment for the industry.
In a separate analysis, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed to the enterprise-value-to-bitcoin-holdings ratio of MicroStrategy, currently the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. He noted the importance of this ratio remaining above 1.0, as it indicates the company’s financial health and likelihood of holding its Bitcoin reserves. In light of MicroStrategy’s establishment of a $1.4 billion reserve fund for future dividends and payments, Panigirtzoglou expressed optimism that this would prevent pressure to sell Bitcoin in the near term, suggesting that the worst could be behind for the cryptocurrency.
Nonetheless, the prospect of a significant rebound faces skepticism from some long-time holders who remain wary due to Bitcoin’s historical four-year price cycle, which is closely tied to the halving event that occurs every four years. As history suggests, this pattern has resulted in considerable downturns, typically exceeding 80% in the post-halving periods. The most recent halving occurred in 2024.
However, some voices within the industry, including ReserveOne CEO Jaime Leverton, argue that the traditional four-year cycle may be losing relevance as the regulatory landscape becomes more favorable and stabilizes. Leverton boldly predicted the possibility of a new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2026, marking a departure from conventional price trends.
While the uncertainty remains palpable, the year ahead may hold significant shifts for Bitcoin, as developments in regulation, corporate investment, and market sentiment continue to evolve. The intersection of these factors could play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of this storied cryptocurrency.
