Analyst and creator of the ‘Bitcoin Quantile Model,’ Plan C, has recently shared a series of charts challenging the notion that Bitcoin’s market patterns will replicate previous cycles, especially as the cryptocurrency hovers around $87,661. These charts highlight a broader macroeconomic environment characterized by weak business-cycle indicators while hard assets, particularly gold, continue to show solid demand. This dynamic can influence the timing of Bitcoin’s price movements, despite its overall bullish trajectory remaining intact.
Plan C warns that presuming Bitcoin’s current cycle will mirror its past bull markets could lead to significant financial misjudgments. Two charts, shared by TechDev_52, juxtapose Bitcoin’s performance with a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) styled “business cycle” series. These visuals indicate that Bitcoin’s value has remained relatively stable even as the business cycle metric trends downward.
The most recent U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI reading for November stood at 48.2, signaling a contraction. Anticipation builds as the next report, covering December, is expected in early January. Recent economic conditions have underlined continued demand softness along with broader manufacturing challenges consistent with a PMI reading below 50. This sets the stage for a significant test of Bitcoin’s pricing in 2026.
If market dynamics shift towards accommodating financial policies, Bitcoin could begin to behave more like a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than being tied exclusively to growth measures. In such scenarios, Bitcoin’s strength might continue even amidst PMIs dipping below 50. However, if the expected liquidity support does not manifest, the lack of synchronicity between Bitcoin’s resilience and the business-cycle indicators could lead to swift price corrections.
Plan C’s “Bitcoin Quantile Model” reframes the conversation from analogies to a statistical perspective that situates today’s price within Bitcoin’s historical distribution. This approach refrains from precise forecasts, instead mapping price quantiles over various time horizons. Currently, with Bitcoin around $87,620, it rests near the 30th quantile, below the model’s median, despite approaching prior-cycle highs in dollar terms.
The quantile analysis presents an organized method to discuss potential price movements rather than fixed targets. According to this quantitative framework, using $87,661 as a baseline, the three-month price bands extend from approximately $80,000 at the 15th quantile to $127,000 at the median. The upper bands are estimated around $164,000 (85th quantile) and $207,000 (95th quantile). For the one-year horizon, these levels translate to $103,000 (15th quantile), $164,000 (50th), $205,000 (85th), and $253,000 (95th).
The provided charts also normalize Bitcoin and the business-cycle data into z-scores, showcasing an inconsistency where Bitcoin’s strength is not mirrored by an uptick in the business-cycle gauge. This setup presents a regime test with three potential outcomes: PMI could rebound aligning with Bitcoin; PMI may remain weak while Bitcoin stabilizes under liquidity-driven conditions; or PMI could further decline alongside a Bitcoin pullback as market positions shift towards risk aversion.
Another critical aspect of the analysis involves Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold, illustrated in a BTC-gold chart credited to Gert van Lagen. With spot gold prices around $4,458 per ounce, Bitcoin is currently valued at approximately 19.7 ounces of gold per coin. This dynamic could lead to Bitcoin rallying even as the BTC-gold ratio declines, challenging traditional definitions of outperformance in portfolios that pit Bitcoin against more established safe-haven assets.
Gold’s ongoing ascent has been linked to expectations regarding looser policy, shifts in the dollar value, geopolitical factors, and demand from central banks. Markets are also closely monitoring potential 2026 interest rate cuts. In this context, the BTC-gold ratio becomes a pivotal indicator alongside manufacturing data, with indications that a stable ratio could signify Bitcoin improving in relative performance despite gold’s strength.
In summary, the charts suggest three potential trajectories over the upcoming 6 to 12 months: a reflation rebound with improving PMI data alongside a stronger BTC-gold ratio; a persistent weakness in PMI while liquidity continues to support Bitcoin; or a deeper economic contraction, with demand for hard assets tilting towards gold and reducing Bitcoin’s prospects, leading to potential downward pressures. The approaching ISM Manufacturing PMI release in early January will serve as a pivotal checkpoint for assessing any shifts in the business-cycle indicator.
