Recent insights from Glassnode reveal that Bitcoin is on the cusp of what is referred to as a “death cross,” a term often used in technical analysis to signify a potential bearish trend. Currently, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average stands at $110,669 and is nearing a drop below the 200-day moving average of $110,459. This crossover is typically viewed as a negative signal, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening in relation to longer-term trends.
At present, Bitcoin has experienced a significant correction, down approximately 25% from its all-time high of about $126,000 reached in October. This downturn has persisted for around 41 days, raising concerns among traders and analysts. Interestingly, although the term “death cross” tends to carry a negative connotation, it has historically coincided with local market bottoms in previous cycles.
For instance, earlier this year in September, Bitcoin hit a low near $25,000. Similarly, in August 2024, during the yen carry trade unwind, it found support around $49,000, and back in April 2025, uncertainties related to President Trump’s tariff policies drove BTC down to below $75,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000, and the pattern suggests a potential low forming just before the death cross appears, leading to speculation about whether history may repeat itself.
However, it’s important to note that the intensity of the current drawdown is less severe compared to the one witnessed in April when Bitcoin dropped below $75,000 due to tariff-related issues. That correction was not only deeper, falling around 30% from a January peak of approximately $109,000 but also longer-lasting at about 79 days before it found its bottom in early April.
As the market grapples with this latest decline, a broader perspective shows the influence of external factors, such as the impending end of the United States government shutdown on November 12. Historical comparisons indicate that during the 2019 shutdown, Bitcoin suffered a more than 9% drop shortly after the government reopened on January 25, 2019, taking nearly two weeks to rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin has already seen a decline of approximately 10% since the recent government reopening, adding to the uncertainty about whether a similar trajectory will unfold this time. As traders and analysts observe these developments, the question remains: will this time be different, or is Bitcoin poised for another market bottom in alignment with the death cross signaling?
