Bitcoin (BTC) is capturing the attention of market analysts as they analyze the implications of the Federal Reserve’s recent policy moves. As of September 17, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $116,325. Consequently, investors are contemplating whether the cryptocurrency could replicate previous bullish trends, potentially soaring to $210,000 in the upcoming months.
The historical context is particularly notable. In September 2024, Bitcoin witnessed a remarkable 80% surge following a Federal Reserve rate cut. Analysts suggest that if a similar trend unfolds this time, it could push Bitcoin prices to unprecedented heights. A recent analysis shared within cryptocurrency communities reinforced this potential, stating, “A similar move would take Bitcoin to $210K per coin.”
Research conducted by the Kobeissi Letter analyzed 20 rate cut cycles dating back to 1980, revealing that equities typically gained an average of 14% in the year subsequent to such actions. While Bitcoin is not explicitly tied to stocks, its performance has traditionally correlated with risk assets like equities and gold during periods characterized by monetary easing.
Institutional interest appears to bolster the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. On September 16, 2025, a notable transaction saw a single wallet acquiring $680 million worth of BTC, which underscores the confidence that high-net-worth investors have in current market conditions. Concurrently, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have experienced persistent inflows, indicating strong backing from traditional financial sectors. These factors suggest that the growing institutional acceptance could serve as a catalyst, elevating Bitcoin towards new all-time highs.
Nonetheless, analysts maintain a cautious stance, acknowledging the volatility historically associated with rate decisions. Out of 22 rate cuts reviewed, half resulted in subsequent monthly declines in stock markets, warning that short-term fluctuations could challenge investor confidence.
Adding to the positive sentiment is a phenomenon commonly referred to as “Uptober.” Analyst Lark Davis noted that since 2020, Bitcoin tends to experience significant gains during September FOMC meetings followed by strong October performance—barring the bear market of 2022. From 2020 to 2024, BTC surged from $10,000 to $64,000, primarily during the post-September window.
Further, Davis highlighted a historical average return of +22.9% in October for Bitcoin, attributing this to year-end liquidity flows and diminished selling pressure. This seasonal trend may further enhance the forecast for Bitcoin’s trajectory in light of the Fed’s policy shifts.
However, the role of the Fed’s actions in influencing Bitcoin prices is a topic of debate among experts. A 2019 study published in Finance Research Letters concluded that FOMC announcements had a minimal average impact of +0.26% on Bitcoin. This perspective suggests that market psychology, cyclical liquidity patterns, and broader trends in adoption could play more significant roles in shaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price stands at $116,325, reflecting a modest growth of 0.71% over the past 24 hours. Trading volume has exceeded $41.8 billion, indicating robust market activity.
As institutional buying momentum, seasonal patterns, and supportive macroeconomic conditions converge, the next price movement of Bitcoin is poised to be pivotal. Despite the potential for short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, with analysts not dismissing the possibility of a rally to $210,000, should historical trends continue to guide the market.
