Bitcoin’s recent performance has been closely linked to the fluctuations of the Nasdaq index, according to market experts. This connection has raised concerns about the potential for deeper price declines in the cryptocurrency as macroeconomic uncertainties linger.
Ecoinometrics, a crypto research platform, shared on social media that Bitcoin appears to be under pressure from the equity markets, particularly during periods when the Nasdaq 100, comprised of the leading U.S. companies, experiences mean reversion phases characterized by subpar returns over the past twelve months. The firm highlighted that historical patterns suggest Bitcoin tends to lag behind when such conditions prevail, making it susceptible to more significant downturns.
Current price patterns echo this trend, as Bitcoin finds itself in a vulnerable position amid macroeconomic challenges. Analysts point to past instances, such as the market reactions in April 2025 and the bottoms seen in August 2024 and November 2022, where Bitcoin’s response to shifts in the Nasdaq was evident. While the Nasdaq showed signs of recovery during those times, Bitcoin’s recovery lagged, following the index after a delay.
Despite the current economic climate, optimism is emerging from certain data. Recent metrics indicate that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has nearly reached zero. This decoupling is reminiscent of a previous episode in July 2025, when Bitcoin experienced an 18% surge and achieved a new all-time high shortly after distancing itself from the Nasdaq. Although Bitcoin hit another record high in August, the short-term separation from equities has sparked a more positive sentiment among analysts.
Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget, posits that this decline in correlation signifies Bitcoin’s evolution as a standalone asset class, interpreting this trend as a “neutral to bullish development.” He emphasizes that in light of rising U.S. unemployment figures and indications of economic deceleration, Bitcoin could emerge as an attractive option for those seeking protection against fiat devaluation.
Looking ahead, a key potential driver for Bitcoin’s resurgence lies in the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting. The market anticipates a quarter-point interest rate cut, as reflected in the CME’s FedWatch tool. Additionally, users of the Myriad prediction market estimate nearly a 78% probability of a rate reduction this September. Experts have indicated that such a move could serve as a catalyst for an increase in risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, noted the potential for significant volatility, especially as certain financial instruments connected to market anxiety, known as the VIX, will expire on the same day as the Fed’s interest rate announcement.
As investors continue to monitor these developments, Bitcoin’s ability to navigate the current landscape intertwined with equity performance and macroeconomic shifts remains to be seen.
