Bitcoin’s recent price behavior has shown a notable drift lower, reflecting an atmosphere of caution within the broader cryptocurrency market. As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to rally above significant resistance levels, its potential for upward movement remains limited. Despite this gradual downturn, structural indicators suggest that accumulation is occurring beneath the surface, although it remains to be seen if this conviction will lead to a noticeable price recovery.
Recent data from Santiment highlights that Bitcoin is approaching a significant milestone, with the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC expected to surpass 20,000 soon. At current market prices, each wallet containing 100 BTC represents an approximate value of $6.78 million. Typically owned by high-net-worth individuals, institutional investors, or long-term holders, the growth in this segment during market pullbacks is often seen as a positive sign. Accumulating during a downturn tends to indicate that these large holders maintain confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals.
However, despite this growth in large wallets, there hasn’t been a significant increase in the overall percentage of supply held by these key stakeholders. This trend implies that the distribution of Bitcoin is diversifying amongst a larger pool of significant holders rather than being concentrated within a select few. While this diversification mitigates the risks associated with extreme concentration, it limits the potential for aggressive price rallies.
Old supply data offers additional insight into market trends. Old supply refers to Bitcoin that has remained untouched for a duration of at least six months and is often attributed to long-term holders who exhibit patience in their investment strategies. In the last three weeks, there has been an increase of 188,000 BTC in old supply, valued at over $12.75 billion. This trend indicates that seasoned holders are choosing to retain their Bitcoins, which historically supports longer-term recovery phases when selling pressure eases.
On the derivatives front, the narrative shifts to a more cautious outlook. Aggregate funding rates on platforms like Binance reveal that short positions currently dominate, as negative funding rates signal a prevalence of traders betting against Bitcoin. Over the last 24 hours, the presence of red funding bars hints at a market sentiment oriented toward potential declines. If this trend of short bias continues, BTC may endure prolonged phases of consolidation. Elevated short interest poses a risk to any near-term rallies unless a significant catalyst prompts short covering among traders.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,867, lingering beneath the resistance level of $68,830. Over the past 20 days, it has formed a mild downward trend line. A decisive breakthrough above $70,000 could shift market sentiment in a bullish direction, indicating renewed strength. The growth in accumulation and the increase in large wallet counts lay a supportive groundwork for possible price increases. Should the momentum strengthen and the price respond accordingly, Bitcoin could potentially exceed the $70,000 mark. Surpassing the $72,294 level could signal a structural recovery phase, which might draw more inflows from investors.
Yet, the divergence between ongoing spot accumulation and the prevailing skepticism in derivatives trading could restrict upward movements. If lower highs continue to form, it could solidify the downtrend line. In such a scenario, Bitcoin may test the support level at $66,224. A sustained breach below this threshold could undermine bullish sentiments and subject Bitcoin to extended consolidation pressures.
