Bitcoin is gaining attention from trading desks as it demonstrates remarkable resilience amid recent global macro stresses. The cryptocurrency saw a notable rise, reaching nearly $71,000, an increase of around 7% from lows recorded on Sunday evening. This growth comes despite escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict and market concerns surrounding oil supply disruptions and pressures in private credit markets.
In a stark contrast, major stock indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have remained relatively flat during the same period, while gold—often regarded as a safe haven in times of crisis—has experienced only modest gains. In fact, Bitcoin is the sole asset among these three to post gains so far this month.
Analysts are beginning to express cautious optimism about the stability of the crypto market, as Bitcoin appears to be breaking away from its previously tight correlation with struggling software stocks. Over the last five days, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has increased by 3.75%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has decreased by 2.45%.
Aurelie Barthere, a principal research analyst at Nansen, points to a significant sign of resilience: Bitcoin’s limited reaction to fresh geopolitical headlines. Earlier in the week, a brief surge of optimism had initially uplifted equities and crypto alongside declining oil prices, hinting at markets tentatively pricing in a potential easing of tensions in the Iran conflict. However, by the end of the session, that optimism waned, and many risk assets retraced some of their gains. Barthere noted, “Bitcoin’s downside sensitivity has been relatively limited,” contrasting its stability with traditional benchmarks like the Euro Stoxx index, which experienced sharper declines.
Another noteworthy development is Bitcoin’s evolving correlation with gold. Bryan Tan, a trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute, highlighted that the BTC-gold correlation has shifted to positive territory, moving from -0.49 to +0.16 in just a week. In the initial phase of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin had fallen when gold rallied, a typical risk-off reaction. Recently, however, both assets have risen in tandem amid a weakening U.S. dollar, suggesting that investors may increasingly view them as beneficiaries of dollar softness.
The recent improvements in Bitcoin ETF flows are also contributing to its newfound strength. Data indicates that Bitcoin ETF flows had been experiencing a downward trend since their peak in October, but recent weeks have seen a noticeable turnaround, particularly with consistent inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which stands as the largest Bitcoin ETF. Joe Edwards, head of research at Enigma, emphasized the importance of sustained ETF demand for Bitcoin’s future growth, which many analysts believe hinges on access to deeper institutional capital pools.
Notably, IBIT has attracted nearly $1 billion in fresh inflows so far in March, following substantial losses exceeding $3 billion between November and February. Edwards remarked that if this trend continues, it could support a broader recovery for Bitcoin as it moves through the second quarter.
