Bitwise has issued a compelling forecast for the bitcoin market in 2026, anticipating a significant evolution in the way the cryptocurrency behaves as it continues to mature. As institutional investment increases, the asset manager suggests that the traditional four-year cycle of bitcoin will undergo a transformation. According to Bitwise, the longstanding factors that have typically influenced these cycles, such as bitcoin halvings, interest rate adjustments, and leveraged trading dynamics, are weakening.
In a recent blog post, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, articulated this perspective. He emphasized that the upcoming bitcoin halving, which traditionally results in a reduction of new BTC supply by 50%, is likely to be less impactful than in previous years. This adjustment is integral as it determines miner rewards for creating new blocks. Coupled with the anticipated reduced rates and the restriction of leverage following significant liquidations in late 2025, the market may not behave as it traditionally would after a halving event.
Hougan pointed out that two key elements—potential inflows driven by spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing accessibility of bitcoin on major brokerage platforms—could contribute to substantial gains for the cryptocurrency. Instead of experiencing a typical post-halving market downturn, he foresees bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in 2026.
Furthermore, Hougan challenged the perception of bitcoin as an inherently risky asset. He noted that in 2025, bitcoin demonstrated lower volatility compared to shares of Nvidia, a major chipmaker. This decreasing volatility trend has been consistent over the last decade, a development attributed to the expansion of exchange-traded funds that broaden bitcoin ownership.
In a further analysis of market dynamics, Hougan predicted that bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stock performance will diminish. He believes that specific factors in the crypto sector—such as regulatory changes, adoption rates, and innovative product offerings—will play a more decisive role in shaping bitcoin’s future.
According to Bitwise’s outlook, these trends collectively position 2026 as a pivotal year for bitcoin, potentially attracting tens of billions of dollars from institutional investors and solidifying its status as a key portfolio asset.
