Bullish, the crypto exchange backed by entrepreneur Peter Thiel, is poised to make significant inroads in the institutional crypto market, targeting an 8% share by 2027. Analysts from wealth management firm Bernstein predict that Bullish’s revenue will surge by 77%, reaching an estimated $377 million by that year.
With a substantial $3.5 billion investment portfolio comprising Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, in addition to $1 billion raised from its recent public offering, Bullish is emerging as a formidable competitor to current market leader Coinbase. Bernstein has initiated its coverage of Bullish stock with a “Market Perform” rating and set a target price of $60, suggesting a potential 15% increase from its recent closing value.
The future success of Bullish heavily relies on its ability to launch its services for U.S. customers by the end of 2026. While the exchange successfully completed a $1 billion IPO on the New York Stock Exchange in August, its trading platform remains unavailable to U.S. clients. Bernstein analysts highlight the importance of this step, forecasting that Bullish could become the second-largest institutional exchange, capturing 11% of total trading volumes and generating 10% of transaction revenue in the U.S. market upon launch.
The institutional crypto trading market is expected to expand dramatically, with Bernstein projecting its value to increase from $5 billion in 2024 to $18 billion by 2030. As part of the anticipated growth, the U.S. market share is expected to rise from 7% to 20%. Bernstein values Bullish at 34 times its projected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for 2027, reflecting a premium compared to competitors like Coinbase and Robinhood.
In line with Coinbase, Bullish is adopting a compliance-first strategy, acquiring licenses in profitable locations such as Hong Kong and Germany, and is anticipated to secure a New York BitLicense this year. Despite its current unavailability in Germany and Hong Kong, this strategy positions Bullish to take advantage of regulatory changes that are encouraging asset managers, broker-dealers, and banks to engage with digital assets.
Bullish’s portfolio offers more than just trading services. The firm also owns CoinDesk, a prominent crypto media outlet, and manages indices tracking $41 billion in assets. Subscription revenues from data, indices, and liquidity services are projected to nearly triple to $145 million by 2027, which would account for 39% of the total revenue. Analysts note that derivatives may serve as a key growth area, especially considering that crypto futures currently represent 73% of global trading volumes. However, U.S. derivatives markets are still in their early stages, leaving room for future development and expansion.
