Bitcoin’s price has likely hit a bottom in its latest downturn, according to Cathie Wood, Chief Executive of ARK Invest. Wood emphasized that the current cycle has been notably mild, and she believes that broader economic forces are aligning in favor of risk assets, suggesting that a rally for Bitcoin could be imminent. Recently, ARK Invest raised its long-term outlook for both Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market.
Wood addressed concerns regarding Bitcoin’s traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle, stating that these fears may be exaggerated at this point. She noted that Bitcoin has already navigated most of its decline. “I know there’s a lot of fear about the four-year cycle. We didn’t have much of an up cycle by Bitcoin standards, so we think we’re pretty well through the down cycle here,” she stated. While acknowledging potential short-term volatility, Wood expressed confidence that a significant sell-off is unlikely. She predicts Bitcoin might test the $80,000 to $90,000 range but believes that this test will be successful, dubbing it the least severe four-year cycle decline in Bitcoin’s history.
Wood described Bitcoin as benefitting from several long-term structural changes, identifying it as participating in “three revolutions in one,” which includes a transformation of the global monetary system competing with fiat currencies and establishing itself as a leader in a new asset class.
In ARK Invest’s recent “Big Ideas 2026” report, the firm projected that the global cryptocurrency market could grow at a 61% compound annual growth rate, reaching approximately $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin comprising about 70% of this total. The report forecasts Bitcoin’s price could rise to between $950,000 and $1 million, emphasizing its maturation as a leading institutional asset class.
Wood also identified three macroeconomic conditions that she believes will support both Bitcoin and financial markets moving forward. First, she asserted that economic weakness has already been absorbed across various sectors, reducing the risk of a pronounced downturn. “We think that we’ve been through a rolling recession,” she explained, referencing sectors like housing, manufacturing, and consumer sentiment.
Second, Wood pointed to tax incentives as potential growth drivers, noting that tax cuts and substantial refunds in the first quarter could lead to a significant investment cycle. Lastly, she cited deregulation, lower interest rates, and easing inflation as factors likely to further enhance market conditions.
Summarizing her outlook, Wood commented that the combination of these elements could create an unusually favorable environment for investors, coining it a “Goldilocks” scenario that she expects to benefit the financial markets throughout the year.
